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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Mesters, Geert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Pompeu Fabra University; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
摘要：Despite decades of research, the consistent estimation of structural forward-looking macroeconomic equations remains a formidable empirical challenge because of pervasive endogeneity issues. Prominent cases-the estimation of Phillips curves, Euler equations, or monetary policy rules-have typically relied on using predetermined variables as instruments, with mixed success. In this work, we propose a new approach that consists in using sequences of independently identified structural shocks as i...
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作者：Backus, Matthew; Blake, Thomas; Larsen, Brad; Tadelis, Steven
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); eBay Inc.; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study patterns of behavior in bilateral bargaining situations using a rich new data set describing back-and-forth sequential bargaining occurring in over 25 million listings from eBay's Best Offer platform. We compare observed behavior to predictions from the large theoretical bargaining literature. One-third of bargaining interactions end in immediate agreement, as predicted by complete-information models. The majority of sequences play out differently, ending in disagreement or delayed ag...
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作者：Ashraf, Nava; Bau, Natalie; Low, Corinne; Mcginn, Kathleen
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); University of Pennsylvania; Harvard University
摘要：Using a randomized controlled trial, we study whether a negotiation skills training can improve girls' educational outcomes in a low-resource environment. We find that a negotiation training given to eighth-grade Zambian girls significantly improved educational outcomes over the next three years, and these effects did not fade out. To better understand mechanisms, we estimate the effects of two alternative treatments. Negotiation had much stronger effects than an informational treatment, which...
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作者：Caselli, Francesco; Koren, Miklos; Lisicky, Milan; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Central European University; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England
摘要：A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the ...
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作者：Eliason, Paul J.; Heebsh, Benjamin; Mcdevitt, Ryan C.; Roberts, James W.
作者单位：Brigham Young University; Duke University; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Many industries have become increasingly concentrated through mergers and acquisitions, which in health care may have important consequences for spending and outcomes. Using a rich panel of Medicare claims data for nearly one million dialysis patients, we advance the literature on the effects of mergers and acquisitions by studying the precise ways providers change their behavior following an acquisition. We base our empirical analysis on more than 1,200 acquisitions of independent dialysis fa...
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作者：Chandra, Amitabh; Staiger, Douglas O.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College
摘要：In medicine, the reasons for variation in treatment rates across hospitals serving similar patients are not well understood. Some interpret this variation as unwarranted and push standardization of care as a way of reducing allocative inefficiency. An alternative interpretation is that hospitals with greater expertise in a treatment use it more because of their comparative advantage, suggesting that standardization is misguided. A simple economic model provides an empirical framework to separa...
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作者：Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Gopinath, Gita; Mishra, Prachi; Narayanan, Abhinav
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Reserve Bank of India
摘要：We analyze a unique episode in the history of monetary economics, the 2016 Indian demonetization. This policy made 86% of cash in circulation illegal tender overnight, with new notes gradually introduced over the next several months. We present a model of demonetization where agents hold cash both to satisfy a cash-in-advance constraint and for tax evasion purposes. We test the predictions of the model in the cross-section of Indian districts using several novel data sets including: the geogra...
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作者：Redding, Stephen J.; Weinstein, David E.
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University
摘要：We develop an approach to measuring the cost of living for CES preferences that treats demand shocks as taste shocks that are equivalent to price shocks. In the presence of relative taste shocks, the Sato-Vartia price index is upward biased because an increase in the relative consumer taste for a variety lowers its taste-adjusted price and raises its expenditure share. By failing to allow for this association, the Sato-Vartia index underweights drops in taste-adjusted prices and overweights in...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Ropele, Tiziano
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms' economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for credit, and r...
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作者：Bustos, Paula; Garber, Gabriel; Ponticelli, Jacopo
作者单位：Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Central Bank of Brazil; Northwestern University
摘要：Several scholars argue that high agricultural productivity can retard industrial development because it draws resources toward the comparative advantage sector, agriculture. However, agricultural productivity growth can increase savings and the supply of capital, generating an expansion of the capital-intensive sector, manufacturing. We highlight this mechanism in a simple model and test its predictions in the context of a large and exogenous increase in agricultural productivity due to the ad...
