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作者：Augenblick, Ned; Rabin, Matthew
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University
摘要：When a Bayesian learns new information and changes her beliefs, she must on average become concomitantly more certain about the state of the world. Consequently, it is rare for a Bayesian to frequently shift beliefs substantially while remaining relatively uncertain, or, conversely, become very confident with relatively little belief movement. We formalize this intuition by developing specific measures of movement and uncertainty reduction given a Bayesian's changing beliefs over time, showing...
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作者：Autor, David; Dorn, David; Katz, Lawrence F.; Patterson, Christina; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Harvard University; University of Chicago; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：The fall of labor's share of GDP in the United States and many other countries in recent decades is well documented but its causes remain uncertain. Existing empirical assessments typically rely on industry or macro data, obscuring heterogeneity among firms. In this article, we analyze micro panel data from the U.S. Economic Census since 1982 and document empirical patterns to assess a new interpretation of the fall in the labor share based on the rise of superstar firms. If globalization or t...
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作者：Card, David; Dellavigna, Stefano; Funk, Patricia; Iriberri, Nagore
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; University of Basque Country
摘要：We study the role of gender in the evaluation of economic research using submissions to four leading journals. We find that referee gender has no effect on the relative assessment of female- versus male-authored papers, suggesting that any differential biases of male referees are negligible. To determine whether referees as a whole impose different standards for female authors, we compare citations for female- and male-authored papers, holding constant referee evaluations and other characteris...
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作者：Kamada, Yuichiro; Sugaya, Takuo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stanford University
摘要：We construct a dynamic model of election campaigns. In the model, opportunities for candidates to refine/clarify their policy positions are limited and arrive stochastically along the course of the campaign until the predetermined election date. We show that this simple friction leads to rich and subtle campaign dynamics. We first demonstrate these effects in a series of canonical static models of elections that we extend to dynamic settings, including models with valence and a multidimensiona...
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作者：Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Jones, Maggie R.; Porter, Sonya R.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the sources of racial disparities in income using anonymized longitudinal data covering nearly the entire U.S. population from 1989 to 2015. We document three results. First, black Americans and American Indians have much lower rates of upward mobility and higher rates of downward mobility than whites, leading to persistent disparities across generations. Conditional on parent income, the black-white income gap is driven by differences in wages and employment rates between black and w...
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作者：Koijen, Ralph S. J.; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University
摘要：We estimate the benefit of life-extending medical treatments to life insurance companies. Our main insight is that life insurance companies have a direct benefit from such treatments because they lower the insurer's liabilities by pushing the death benefit further into the future and raising future premium income. We apply this insight to immunotherapy, treatments associated with durable gains in survival rates for a growing number of cancer patients. We estimate that the life insurance sector...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; Harvard University
摘要：Building on a textbook description of associative memory (Kahana 2012), we present a model of choice in which a choice option cues recall of similar past experiences. Memory shapes valuation and decisions in two ways. First, recalled experiences form a norm, which serves as an initial anchor for valuation. Second, salient quality and price surprises relative to the norm lead to large adjustments in valuation. The model unifies many well-documented choice puzzles, including the attribution and ...
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作者：Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We provide a continuous-time risk-centric representation of the New Keynesian model, which we use to analyze the interactions between asset prices, financial speculation, and macroeconomic outcomes when output is determined by aggregate demand. In principle, interest rate policy is highly effective in dealing with shocks to asset valuations. However, in practice monetary policy faces a wide range of constraints. If these constraints are severe, a decline in risky asset valuations generates a d...
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作者：He, Guojun; Wang, Shaoda; Zhang, Bing
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of Chicago; Nanjing University
摘要：This article estimates the effect of environmental regulation on firm productivity using a spatial regression discontinuity design implicit in China's water quality monitoring system. Because water quality readings are important for political evaluations and the monitoring stations only capture emissions from their upstream regions, local government officials are incentivized to enforce tighter environmental standards on firms immediately upstream of a monitoring station, rather than those imm...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Koehler-Derrick, Gabriel; Marx, Benjamin
作者单位：Boston University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：This article explores the foundations of religious influence in politics and society. We show that an important Islamic institution fostered the entrenchment of Islamism at a critical juncture in Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country. In the early 1960s, rural elites transferred large amounts of land into waqf-inalienable charitable trusts in Islamic law-to avoid expropriation by the state. Regions facing a greater threat of expropriation exhibit more prevalent waqf land and Islamic in...
