INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND FIRM DECISIONS: NEW CAUSAL EVIDENCE
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Ropele, Tiziano
署名单位：
University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
刊物名称：
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
0033-5533
DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjz029
发表日期：
2020
页码：
165-219
关键词：
摘要：
We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of inflation expectations on firms' economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset of firms is repeatedly treated with information about recent inflation whereas other firms are not. This information treatment generates exogenous variation in inflation expectations. We find that higher inflation expectations on the part of firms leads them to raise their prices, increase demand for credit, and reduce their employment and capital. However, when policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound, demand effects are stronger, leading firms to raise their prices more and no longer reduce their employment.
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