DIVERSIFICATION THROUGH TRADE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Caselli, Francesco; Koren, Miklos; Lisicky, Milan; Tenreyro, Silvana
• 署名单位: Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Central European University; HUN-REN; HUN-REN Centre for Economic & Regional Studies; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjz028
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 449-502
• 关键词: general equilibrium-analysis; INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; vertical specialization; IMPACT; integration; volatility; openness; GROWTH; gains; MODEL

摘要

A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher income volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. Contrary to this common wisdom, we argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower income volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and show that in recent decades international trade has reduced economic volatility for most countries.