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作者：Jorda, Oscar; Knoll, Katharina; Kuvshinov, Dmitry; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; Deutsche Bundesbank; University of Bonn; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our n...
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作者：Hassan, Tarek A.; Hollander, Stephan; van Lent, Laurence; Tahoun, Ahmed
作者单位：Boston University; Tilburg University; Frankfurt School Finance & Management; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We adapt simple tools from computational linguistics to construct a new measure of political risk faced by individual U.S. firms: the share of their quarterly earnings conference calls that they devote to political risks. We validate our measure by showing that it correctly identifies calls containing extensive conversations on risks that are political in nature, that it varies intuitively over time and across sectors, and that it correlates with the firm's actions and stock market volatility ...
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作者：Enke, Benjamin
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Across the social sciences, a key question is how societies manage to enforce cooperative behavior in social dilemmas such as public goods provision or bilateral trade. According to an influential body of theories in psychology, anthropology, and evolutionary biology, the answer is that humans have evolved moral systems: packages of functional psychological and biological mechanisms that regulate economic behavior, including a belief in moralizing gods; moral values; negative reciprocity; and ...
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作者：Beraja, Martin; Fuster, Andreas; Hurst, Erik; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of Chicago
摘要：We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts, but these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth. We build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing with mortgage borrower...
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作者：Caicedo, Felipe Valencia
作者单位：University of British Columbia; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This article examines the long-term consequences of a historical human capital intervention. The Jesuit order founded religious missions in 1609 among the Guarani, in modern-day Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay. Before their expulsion in 1767, missionaries instructed indigenous inhabitants in reading, writing, and various crafts. Using archival records, as well as data at the individual and municipal level, I show that in areas of former Jesuit presence-within the Guarani area-educational attai...
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作者：Benson, Alan; Li, Danielle; Shue, Kelly
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
摘要：The best worker is not always the best candidate for manager. In these cases, do firms promote the best potential manager or the best worker in their current job? Using microdata on the performance of sales workers at 131 firms, we find evidence consistent with the Peter Principle, which proposes that firms prioritize current job performance in promotion decisions at the expense of other observable characteristics that better predict managerial performance. We estimate that the costs of promot...
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作者：Allcott, Hunt; Lockwood, Benjamin B.; Taubinsky, Dmitry
作者单位：New York University; Microsoft; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：A common objection to sin taxes-corrective taxes on goods that are thought to be overconsumed, such as cigarettes, alcohol, and sugary drinks-is that they often fall disproportionately on low-income consumers. This paper studies the interaction between corrective and redistributive motives in a general optimal taxation framework and delivers empirically implementable formulas for sufficient statistics for the optimal commodity tax. The optimal sin tax is increasing in the price elasticity of d...
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作者：Barjamovic, Gojko; Chaney, Thomas; Cosar, Kerem; Hortacsu, Ali
作者单位：Harvard University; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of Virginia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze a large data set of commercial records produced by Assyrian merchants in the nineteenth century BCE. Using the information from these records, we estimate a structural gravity model of long-distance trade in the Bronze Age. We use our structural gravity model to locate lost ancient cities. In many cases, our estimates confirm the conjectures of historians who follow different methodologies. In some instances, our estimates confirm one conjecture against others. We also structurally ...
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作者：Jones, Damon; Molitor, David; Reif, Julian
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
摘要：Workplace wellness programs cover over 50 million U.S. workers and are intended to reduce medical spending, increase productivity, and improve well-being. Yet limited evidence exists to support these claims. We designed and implemented a comprehensive workplace wellness program for a large employer and randomly assigned program eligibility and financial incentives at the individual level for nearly 5,000 employees. We find strong patterns of selection: during the year prior to the intervention...
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作者：Kline, Patrick; Petkova, Neviana; Williams, Heidi; Zidar, Owen
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; United States Department of the Treasury; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Princeton University
摘要：This article analyzes how patent-induced shocks to labor productivity propagate into worker compensation using a new linkage of U.S. patent applications to U.S. business and worker tax records. We infer the causal effects of patent allowances by comparing firms whose patent applications were initially allowed to those whose patent applications were initially rejected. To identify patents that are ex ante valuable, we extrapolate the excess stock return estimates of Kogan et al. (2017) to the f...
