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作者：Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Saez, Emmanuel; Turner, Nicholas; Yagan, Danny
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Brown University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We construct publicly available statistics on parents' incomes and students' earnings outcomes for each college in the United States using deidentified data from tax records. These statistics reveal that the degree of parental income segregation across colleges is very high, similar to that across neighborhoods. Differences in postcollege earnings between children from low- and high-income families are much smaller among students who attend the same college than across colleges. Colleges with ...
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作者：Hendren, Nathaniel; Sprung-Keyser, Ben
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We conduct a comparative welfare analysis of 133 historical policy changes over the past half-century in the United States, focusing on policies in social insurance, education and job training, taxes and cash transfers, and in-kind transfers. For each policy, we use existing causal estimates to calculate the benefit that each policy provides its recipients (measured as their willingness to pay) and the policy's net cost, inclusive of long-term effects on the government's budget. We divide the ...
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作者：Pflueger, Carolin; Siriwardane, Emil; Sunderam, Adi
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We provide evidence that financial market risk perceptions are important drivers of economic fluctuations. We introduce a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVSt), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVSt is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and option prices is low. Using our measure, we show that high perceived risk is associated with low risk-free interest r...
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作者：Heblich, Stephan; Redding, Stephen J.; Sturm, Daniel M.
作者单位：University of Toronto; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Using newly constructed spatially disaggregated data for London from 1801 to 1921, we show that the invention of the steam railway led to the first large-scale separation of workplace and residence. We show that a class of quantitative urban models is remarkably successful in explaining this reorganization of economic activity. We structurally estimate one of the models in this class and find substantial agglomeration forces in both production and residence. In counterfactuals, we find that re...
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作者：Behrens, Kristian; Mion, Giordano; Murata, Yasusada; Suedekum, Jens
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Sussex; Nihon University; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf
摘要：Equilibria and optima generally differ in imperfectly competitive markets. Although this is well understood theoretically, it is unclear how large the welfare distortions are in the aggregate economy. Do they matter quantitatively? To answer this question, we develop a multisector monopolistic competition model with endogenous firm entry and selection, productivity, and markups. Using French and UK data, we quantify the gap between the equilibrium and optimal allocations. We find that ineffici...
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作者：Deming, David J.; Noray, Kadeem
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article studies the impact of changing job skills on career earnings dynamics for college graduates. We measure changes in the skill content of occupations between 2007 and 2019 using detailed job descriptions from a near universe of online job postings. We then develop a simple model where the returns to work experience are a race between on-the-job learning and skill obsolescence. Obsolescence lowers the return to experience, flattening the age-earnings profile in faster-changing career...
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作者：Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Gaubert, Cecile
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study optimal spatial policies in a quantitative trade and geography framework with spillovers and spatial sorting of heterogeneous workers. We characterize the spatial transfers that must hold in efficient allocations, as well as labor subsidies that can implement them. There exists scope for welfare-enhancing spatial policies even when spillovers are common across locations. Using data on U.S. cities and existing estimates of the spillover elasticities, we find that the U.S. economy would...
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作者：Liang, Annie; Mu, Xiaosheng
摘要：We develop a model of social learning from complementary information: short-lived agents sequentially choose from a large set of flexibly correlated information sources for prediction of an unknown state, and information is passed down across periods. Will the community collectively acquire the best kinds of information? Long-run outcomes fall into one of two cases: (i) efficient information aggregation, where the community eventually learns as fast as possible; (ii) learning traps, where the ...
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作者：Bigio, Saki; La'O, Jennifer
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：How does an economy's production structure determine its macroeconomic response to sectoral distortions? We study a static, multisector framework in which production is organized in an input-output network and production decisions are distorted. Sectoral distortions manifest at the aggregate level via two channels: total factor productivity (TFP) and the labor wedge. We show that near efficiency, distortions have zero first-order effects on TFP and nonzero first-order effects on the labor wedg...
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作者：Boehm, Johannes; Oberfield, Ezra
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：The strength of contract enforcement determines how firms source inputs and organize production. Using microdata on Indian manufacturing plants, we show that production and sourcing decisions appear systematically distorted in states with weaker enforcement. Specifically, we document that in industries that tend to rely more heavily on relationship-specific intermediate inputs, plants in states with more-congested courts shift their expenditures away from intermediate inputs and have a greater...
