Journal of Political Economy

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• Macroprudential Policy, Countercyclical Bank Capital Buffers, and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Spanish Dynamic Provisioning Experiments AI翻译
  作者：Jimenez, Gabriel; Ongena, Steven; Peydro, Jose-Luis; Saurina, Jesus
  作者单位：Banco de Espana; University of Zurich; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Pompeu Fabra University; ICREA; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Imperial College London
  摘要：To study the impact of macroprudential policy on credit supply cycles and real effects, we analyze dynamic provisioning. Introduced in Spain in 2000, revised four times, and tested in its countercyclicality during the crisis, it affected banks differentially. We find that dynamic provisioning smooths credit supply cycles and, in had times, supports firm performance. A 1 percentage point increase in capital buffers extends credit to firms by 9 percentage points, increasing firm employment (6 pe...
• Optimal Taxation and Human Capital Policies over the Life Cycle AI翻译
  作者：Stantcheva, Stefanie
  作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper derives optimal income tax and human capital policies in a life cycle model with risky human capital. The government faces asymmetric information regarding agents' ability, its evolution, and labor supply. When the wage elasticity with respect to ability is increasing in human capital, the optimal subsidy involves less than full deductibility of human capital expenses on the tax base and falls with age. Income contingent loans or a deferred deductibility scheme can implement the opt...
• Globalization, Markups, and US Welfare AI翻译
  作者：Feenstra, Robert C.; Weinstein, David E.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
  摘要：This paper estimates the impact of globalization on markups, and the effect of changing markups on US welfare, in a monopolistic competition model. We work with symmetric translog preferences, which allow for endogenous markups and firm entry and exit, thereby changing product variety. We find that between 1992 and 2005, US import shares rose and US firms exited, leading to an implied fall in markups, while variety went up because of imports. US welfare rose by nearly 1 percent as a result of ...
• Unobserved Preference Heterogeneity in Demand Using Generalized Random Coefficients AI翻译
  作者：Lewbel, Arthur; Pendakur, Krishna
  作者单位：Boston College; Simon Fraser University
  摘要：We prove a new identification theorem showing nonparametric identification of the joint distribution of random coefficients in general nonlinear and additive models. This differs from existing random coefficients models by not imposing a linear index structure for the regressors. We then model unobserved preference heterogeneity in consumer demand as utility functions with random Barten scales. These Barten scales appear as random coefficients in nonlinear demand equations. Using Canadian data...
• Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program AI翻译
  作者：Agarwal, Sumit; Amromin, Gene; Ben-David, Itzhak; Chomsisengphet, Souphala; Piskorski, Tomasz; Seru, Amit
  作者单位：National University of Singapore; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; United States Department of the Treasury; Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; Columbia University; University of Chicago
  摘要：We evaluate the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries with sizable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. HAMP increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented a substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one-third of its targeted indebted households. This shortfall was in large part due to low renegotiation intensity of a few large intermediaries and was driven by intermediary-specific factors. Exploiting regional vari...
• Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality AI翻译
  作者：Lusardi, Annamaria; Michaud, Pierre-Carl; Mitchell, Olivia S.
  作者单位：George Washington University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; RAND Corporation; Rand Health; University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：We show that financial knowledge is a key determinant of wealth inequality in a stochastic life cycle model with endogenous financial knowledge accumulation, where financial knowledge enables individuals to better allocate lifetime resources in a world of uncertainty and imperfect insurance. Moreover, because of how the US social insurance system works, better-educated individuals have most to gain from investing in financial knowledge. Our parsimonious specification generates substantial weal...
• The Runner-Up Effect AI翻译
  作者：Anagol, Santosh; Fujiwara, Thomas
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being labeled the runner-up. Selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections, and we find no effe...
• The Pass-Through of Sovereign Risk AI翻译
  作者：Bocola, Luigi
  作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of sovereign risk in a model in which banks hold domestic government debt. News of a future sovereign default hampers financial intermediation. First, it tightens the funding constraints of banks, reducing their resources to finance firms (liquidity channel). Second, it generates a precautionary motive to deleverage (risk channel). I estimate the model using Italian data, finding that sovereign risk was recessionary and that the risk channel w...
• Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century AI翻译
  作者：Barreca, Alan; Clay, Karen; Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael; Shapiro, Joseph S.
  作者单位：Tulane University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of Chicago; Yale University
  摘要：This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80 degrees F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day-...
• Self-Targeting: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia AI翻译
  作者：Alatas, Vivi; Banerjee, Abhijit; Hanna, Rema; Olken, Benjamin A.; Purnamasari, Ririn; Wai-Poi, Matthew
  作者单位：The World Bank; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
  摘要：This paper shows that adding a small application cost to a transfer program can substantially improve targeting through self-selection. Our village-level experiment in Indonesia finds that requiring beneficiaries to apply for benefits results in substantially poorer beneficiaries than automatic enrollment using the same asset test. Marginally increasing application costs on an experimental basis does not further improve targeting. Estimating a model of the application decision implies that the...