The Runner-Up Effect

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Anagol, Santosh; Fujiwara, Thomas
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; Princeton University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/686746
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 927-991
• 关键词: regression-discontinuity designs; US-HOUSE ELECTIONS; incumbency advantage; DUVERGERS LAW; voter turnout; selection; television; MODEL; responsiveness; COORDINATION

摘要

Exploiting regression discontinuity designs in Brazilian, Indian, and Canadian first-past-the-post elections, we document that second-place candidates are substantially more likely than close third-place candidates to run in, and win, subsequent elections. Since both candidates lost the election and had similar electoral performance, this is the effect of being labeled the runner-up. Selection into candidacy is unlikely to explain the effect on winning subsequent elections, and we find no effect of finishing in third place versus fourth place. We develop a simple model of strategic coordination by voters that rationalizes the results and provides further predictions that are supported by the data.