Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barreca, Alan; Clay, Karen; Deschenes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael; Shapiro, Joseph S.
• 署名单位: Tulane University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carnegie Mellon University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of Chicago; Yale University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/684582
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 105-159
• 关键词: heat waves; HEALTH; weather; adaptation; energy; IMPACT; COSTS

摘要

This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 80 degrees F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day-related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden's discrete-continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85-$185 billion (2012 dollars).