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作者：Angrist, Joshua D.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The view that empirical strategies in economics should be transparent and credible now goes almost without saying. By revealing for whom particular instrumental variables (IV) estimates are valid, the local average treatment effects (LATE) framework helped make this so. This lecture uses empirical examples, mostly involving effects of charter and exam school attendance, to illustrate the value of the LATE framework for causal inference. LATE distinguishes independence conditions satisfied by r...
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作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso; Brandt, Loren; Leight, Jessica; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：York University - Canada; University of Toronto; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use household-level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within-village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misa...
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作者：Dunn, Abe; Hall, Anne; Dauda, Seidu
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; The World Bank
摘要：More than two decades ago, a well-known study on heart attack treatments provided evidence suggesting that, when appropriately adjusted for quality, medical care prices were actually declining (Cutler, McClellan, Newhouse, and Remler (1998)). Our paper revisits this subject by leveraging estimates from more than 8000 cost-effectiveness studies across a broad range of conditions and treatments. We find large quality-adjusted price declines associated with treatment innovations. To incorporate t...
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作者：Jones, Callum; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Philippon, Thomas
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We evaluate and partially challenge the household leverage view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in U.S. states where household debt declined more. We study a model of a monetary union composed of many regions in which liquidity constraints shape the response of employment and consumption to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit explain 40% of the differential ris...
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作者：Bilal, Adrien; Engbom, Niklas; Mongey, Simon; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Princeton University
摘要：This paper integrates the classic theory of firm boundaries, through span of control or taste for variety, into a model of the labor market with random matching and on-the-job search. Firms choose when to enter and exit, whether to create vacancies or destroy jobs in response to shocks, and Bertrand-compete to hire and retain workers. Tractability is obtained by proving that, under a parsimonious set of assumptions, all worker and firm decisions are characterized by their joint surplus, which ...
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作者：Baillon, Aurelien; Halevy, Yoram; Li, Chen
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; University of Toronto; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：Facing several decisions, people may consider each one in isolation or integrate them into a single optimization problem. Isolation and integration may yield different choices, for instance, if uncertainty is involved, and only one randomly selected decision is implemented. We investigate whether the random incentive system in experiments that measure ambiguity aversion provides a hedge against ambiguity, making ambiguity-averse subjects who integrate behave as if they were ambiguity neutral. ...
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作者：Somerville, Jason
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This paper investigates whether the range of an attribute's outcomes in the choice set alters its relative importance. I derive distinguishing predictions of two prominent theories of range-dependent attribute weighting: the focusing model of Koszegi and Szeidl (2013) and the relative thinking model of Bushong, Rabin, and Schwartzstein (2021). I test these predictions in a laboratory experiment in which I vary the prices of high- and low-quality variants of multiple products. The data provide ...
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作者：Diamond, Rebecca
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
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作者：Liu, Ernest; Mian, Atif; Sufi, Amir
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Chicago
摘要：This study provides a new theoretical result that a decline in the long-term interest rate can trigger a stronger investment response by market leaders relative to market followers, thereby leading to more concentrated markets, higher profits, and lower aggregate productivity growth. This strategic effect of lower interest rates on market concentration implies that aggregate productivity growth declines as the interest rate approaches zero. The framework is relevant for antitrust policy in a l...
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作者：Bray, Robert L.
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：Rust (1997b) discovered a class of dynamic programs that can be solved in polynomial time with a randomized algorithm. For these dynamic programs, the optimal values of a polynomially large sample of states are sufficient statistics for the (near) optimal values everywhere, and the values of this random sample can be bootstrapped from the sample itself. However, I show that this class is limited, as it requires all but a vanishingly small fraction of state variables to behave arbitrarily simil...
