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作者：Saleh, Mohamed; Tirole, Jean
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：A ruler who does not identify with a social group, whether on religious, ethnic, cultural, or socioeconomic grounds, is confronted with a trade-off between taking advantage of the out-group population's eagerness to maintain its identity and inducing it to comply (conversion, quitting, exodus, or any other way to accommodate the ruler's own identity). This paper first nests economists' extraction model, in which rulers are revenue-maximizers, within a more general identity-based model, in whic...
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作者：Di Tella, Sebastian; Sannikov, Yuliy
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We characterize optimal asset management contracts in a classic portfolio-investment setting. When the agent has access to hidden savings, his incentives to misbehave depend on his precautionary saving motive. The contract dynamically distorts the agent's access to capital to manipulate his precautionary saving motive and reduce incentives for misbehavior. We provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the first-order approach, which holds in the optimal contract: global incentive compa...
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作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Lanzani, Giacomo; Strack, Philipp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Yale University
摘要：We study how an agent learns from endogenous data when their prior belief is misspecified. We show that only uniform Berk-Nash equilibria can be long-run outcomes, and that all uniformly strict Berk-Nash equilibria have an arbitrarily high probability of being the long-run outcome for some initial beliefs. When the agent believes the outcome distribution is exogenous, every uniformly strict Berk-Nash equilibrium has positive probability of being the long-run outcome for any initial belief. We ...
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作者：Oberfield, Ezra; Raval, Devesh
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We develop a framework to estimate the aggregate capital-labor elasticity of substitution by aggregating the actions of individual plants. The aggregate elasticity reflects substitution within plants and reallocation across plants; the extent of heterogeneity in capital intensities determines their relative importance. We use micro data on the cross-section of plants to build up to the aggregate elasticity at a point in time. Interpreting our econometric estimates through the lens of several d...
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作者：Manski, Charles F.
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University
摘要：Haavelmo (1944) proposed a probabilistic structure for econometric modeling, aiming to make econometrics useful for decision making. His fundamental contribution has become thoroughly embedded in econometric research, yet it could not answer all the deep issues that the author raised. Notably, Haavelmo struggled to formalize the implications for decision making of the fact that models can at most approximate actuality. In the same period, Wald (1939, 1945) initiated his own seminal development...
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作者：Barseghyan, Levon; Coughlin, Maura; Molinari, Francesca; Teitelbaum, Joshua C.
作者单位：Cornell University; Rice University; Georgetown University
摘要：We propose a robust method of discrete choice analysis when agents' choice sets are unobserved. Our core model assumes nothing about agents' choice sets apart from their minimum size. Importantly, it leaves unrestricted the dependence, conditional on observables, between choice sets and preferences. We first characterize the sharp identification region of the model's parameters by a finite set of conditional moment inequalities. We then apply our theoretical findings to learn about households'...
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作者：Jakobsen, Alexander M.
作者单位：University of Calgary
摘要：A sender ranks information structures knowing that a receiver processes the information before choosing an action affecting them both. The sender and receiver may differ in their utility functions and/or prior beliefs, yielding a model of dynamic inconsistency when they represent the same individual at two points in time. I take as primitive (i) a collection of preference orderings over all information structures, indexed by menus of acts (the sender's ex ante preferences for information), and...
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作者：Dal Bo, Ernesto; Finan, Frederico; Li, Nicholas Y.; Schechter, Laura
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Standard models of hierarchy assume that agents and middle managers are better informed than principals. We estimate the value of the informational advantage held by supervisors-middle managers-when ministerial leadership-the principal-introduced a new monitoring technology aimed at improving the performance of agricultural extension agents (AEAs) in rural Paraguay. Our approach employs a novel experimental design that elicited treatment-priority rankings from supervisors before randomization ...
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作者：Hausman, Jerry; Liu, Haoyang; Luo, Ye; Palmer, Christopher
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Hong Kong; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study the consequences of measurement error in the dependent variable of random-coefficients models, focusing on the particular case of quantile regression. The popular quantile regression estimator of Koenker and Bassett (1978) is biased if there is an additive error term. Approaching this problem as an errors-in-variables problem where the dependent variable suffers from classical measurement error, we present a sieve maximum likelihood approach that is robust to left-hand-side measuremen...
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作者：Athey, Susan; Wager, Stefan
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：In many areas, practitioners seek to use observational data to learn a treatment assignment policy that satisfies application-specific constraints, such as budget, fairness, simplicity, or other functional form constraints. For example, policies may be restricted to take the form of decision trees based on a limited set of easily observable individual characteristics. We propose a new approach to this problem motivated by the theory of semiparametrically efficient estimation. Our method can be...
