HOUSEHOLD LEVERAGE AND THE RECESSION

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jones, Callum; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Philippon, Thomas
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA16455
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2471-2505
• 关键词: Great recession; fiscal stimulus; BUSINESS; constraints; liquidity; consumption; inflation; prices; MODEL; crises

摘要

We evaluate and partially challenge the household leverage view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in U.S. states where household debt declined more. We study a model of a monetary union composed of many regions in which liquidity constraints shape the response of employment and consumption to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit explain 40% of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2007-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.