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作者：Halac, Marina; Yared, Pierre
作者单位：Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present-biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which a...
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作者：Caicedo, Santiago; Espinosa, Miguel; Seibold, Arthur
作者单位：Clemson University; Pompeu Fabra University; Bocconi University; University of Mannheim
摘要：We study firm responses to a large-scale change in apprenticeship regulation in Colombia. The reform requires firms to train, setting apprentice quotas that vary discontinuously in firm size. We document strong heterogeneity in responses across sectors, where firms in sectors with high skill requirements tend to avoid training apprentices, while firms in low-skill sectors seek apprentices. Guided by these reduced-form findings, we structurally estimate firms' training costs. Especially in high...
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作者：Miao, Jianjun; Wu, Jieran; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：Boston University; Zhejiang University; Zhejiang University; University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We study optimal control problems in the multivariate linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework under rational inattention. We propose a three-step procedure to solve this problem using semidefinite programming and derive the optimal signal structure without strong prior restrictions. We analyze both the transition dynamics of the optimal posterior covariance matrix and its steady state. We characterize the optimal information structure for some special cases and develop numerical algorithms for gen...
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作者：Liang, Annie; Mu, Xiaosheng; Syrgkanis, Vasilis
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University; Princeton University; Microsoft
摘要：An agent has access to multiple information sources, each modeled as a Brownian motion whose drift provides information about a different component of an unknown Gaussian state. Information is acquired continuously-where the agent chooses both which sources to sample from, and also how to allocate attention across them-until an endogenously chosen time, at which point a decision is taken. We demonstrate conditions on the agent's prior belief under which it is possible to exactly characterize t...
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作者：Muller, Ulrich K.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that account for many forms of spatial correlation. The interval has the familiar estimator plus and minus a standard error times a critical value form, but we propose new methods for constructing the standard error and the critical value. The standard error is constructed using population principal components from a given worst-case spatial correlation model. The critical value is chosen to ensure coverage in a benchmark parametric mod...
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作者：Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou
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作者：Sonmez, Tayfun; Yenmez, M. Bumin
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：Sanctioned by its constitution, India is home to the world's most comprehensive affirmative action program, where historically discriminated groups are protected with vertical reservations implemented as set asides, and other disadvantaged groups are protected with horizontal reservations implemented as minimum guarantees. A mechanism mandated by the Supreme Court in 1995 suffers from important anomalies, triggering countless litigations in India. Foretelling a recent reform correcting the fla...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Mikusheva, Anna
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper studies optimal decision rules, including estimators and tests, for weakly identified GMM models. We derive the limit experiment for weakly identified GMM, and propose a theoretically-motivated class of priors which give rise to quasi-Bayes decision rules as a limiting case. Together with results in the previous literature, this establishes desirable properties for the quasi-Bayes approach regardless of model identification status, and we recommend quasi-Bayes for settings where ide...
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作者：Cheng, Xu; Dou, Winston Wei; Liao, Zhipeng
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper shows that robust inference under weak identification is important to the evaluation of many influential macro asset pricing models, including (time-varying) rare-disaster risk models and long-run risk models. Building on recent developments in the conditional inference literature, we provide a novel conditional specification test by simulating the critical value conditional on a sufficient statistic. This sufficient statistic can be intuitively interpreted as a measure capturing th...
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作者：Crump, Richard K.; Gospodinov, Nikolay
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross-sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the u...
