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作者：Corbae, Dean; D'Erasmo, Pablo
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We develop a model of banking industry dynamics to study the quantitative impact of regulatory policies on bank risk-taking and market structure. Since our model is matched to U.S. data, we propose a market structure where big banks with market power interact with small, competitive fringe banks as well as non-bank lenders. Banks face idiosyncratic funding shocks in addition to aggregate shocks which affect the fraction of performing loans in their portfolio. A nontrivial bank size distributio...
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作者：Frankel, Alex
摘要：A firm selects applicants to hire based on hard information, such as a test result, and soft information, such as a manager's evaluation of an interview. The contract that the firm offers to the manager can be thought of as a restriction on acceptance rates as a function of test results. I characterize optimal acceptance rate functions both when the firm knows the manager's mix of information and biases and when the firm is uncertain. These contracts may admit a simple implementation in which ...
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作者：Elenev, Vadim; Landvoigt, Tim; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Pennsylvania; Columbia University
摘要：How much capital should financial intermediaries hold? We propose a general equilibrium model with a financial sector that makes risky long-term loans to firms, funded by deposits from savers. Government guarantees create a role for bank capital regulation. The model captures the sharp and persistent drop in macro-economic aggregates and credit provision as well as the sharp change in credit spreads observed during financial crises. Policies requiring intermediaries to hold more capital reduce...
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作者：Farrell, Max H.; Liang, Tengyuan; Misra, Sanjog
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We study deep neural networks and their use in semiparametric inference. We establish novel nonasymptotic high probability bounds for deep feedforward neural nets. These deliver rates of convergence that are sufficiently fast (in some cases minimax optimal) to allow us to establish valid second-step inference after first-step estimation with deep learning, a result also new to the literature. Our nonasymptotic high probability bounds, and the subsequent semiparametric inference, treat the curr...
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作者：Brooks, Benjamin; Du, Songzi
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：A profit-maximizing seller has a single unit of a good to sell. The bidders have a pure common value that is drawn from a distribution that is commonly known. The seller does not know the bidders' beliefs about the value and thinks that beliefs are designed adversarially by Nature to minimize profit. We construct a strong maxmin solution to this joint mechanism design and information design problem, consisting of a mechanism, an information structure, and an equilibrium, such that neither the ...
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作者：Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel; Wolf, Christian K.
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Chicago
摘要：We prove that local projections (LPs) and Vector Autoregressions (VARs) estimate the same impulse responses. This nonparametric result only requires unrestricted lag structures. We discuss several implications: (i) LP and VAR estimators are not conceptually separate procedures; instead, they are simply two dimension reduction techniques with common estimand but different finite-sample properties. (ii) VAR-based structural identification-including short-run, long-run, or sign restrictions-can e...
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作者：Bhattacharya, Vivek
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Firms and governments often use R&D contests to incentivize suppliers to develop and deliver innovative products. The optimal design of such contests depends on empirical primitives: the cost of research, the uncertainty in outcomes, and the surplus participants capture. Can R&D contests in real-world settings be redesigned to increase social surplus? I ask this question in the context of the Department of Defense's Small Business Innovation Research program, a multistage R&D contest. I develo...
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作者：Weidmann, Ben; Deming, David J.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Most jobs require teamwork. Are some people good team players? In this paper, we design and test a new method for identifying individual contributions to team production. We randomly assign people to multiple teams and predict team performance based on previously assessed individual skills. Some people consistently cause their team to exceed its predicted performance. We call these individuals team players. Team players score significantly higher on a well-established measure of social intelli...
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作者：Chambers, Christopher P.; Echenique, Federico; Lambert, Nicolas S.
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study preferences estimated from finite choice experiments and provide sufficient conditions for convergence to a unique underlying true preference. Our conditions are weak and, therefore, valid in a wide range of economic environments. We develop applications to expected utility theory, choice over consumption bundles, and menu choice. Our framework unifies the revealed preference tradition with models that allow for errors.
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作者：Mrazova, Monika; Neary, J. Peter; Parenti, Mathieu
作者单位：University of Geneva; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Oxford; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：We characterize the relationship between the distributions of two variables linked by a structural model. We then show that, in models of heterogeneous firms in monopolistic competition, this relationship implies a new demand function that we call CREMR (Constant Revenue Elasticity of Marginal Revenue). This demand function is the only one that is consistent with productivity and sales distributions having the same form (whether Pareto, lognormal, or Frechet) in the cross section, and it is ne...
