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作者：Chassang, Sylvain; Kawai, Kei; Nakabayashi, Jun; Ortner, Juan
作者单位：Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Kindai University (Kinki University); Boston University
摘要：We document a novel bidding pattern observed in procurement auctions from Japan: winning bids tend to be isolated, and there is a missing mass of close losing bids. This pattern is suspicious in the following sense: its extreme forms are inconsistent with competitive behavior under arbitrary information structures. Building on this observation, we develop systematic tests of competitive behavior in procurement auctions that allow for general information structures as well as nonstationary unob...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Makhdoumi, Ali; Malekian, Azarakhsh; Ozdaglar, Asuman
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Duke University; University of Toronto; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper develops a model of Bayesian learning from online reviews and investigates the conditions for learning the quality of a product and the speed of learning under different rating systems. A rating system provides information about reviews left by previous customers. observe the ratings of a product and decide whether to purchase and review it. We study learning dynamics under two classes of rating systems: full history, where customers see the full history of reviews, and summary stat...
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作者：Sviatschi, Maria Micaela
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper provides evidence that exposure to illegal labor markets during childhood leads to the formation of industry-specific human capital at an early age, putting children on a criminal life path. Using the timing of U.S. antidrug policies, I show that when the return to illegal activities increases in coca suitable areas in Peru, parents increase the use of child labor for coca farming, putting children on a criminal life path. Using administrative records, I show that affected children ...
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作者：Fenizia, Alessandra
作者单位：George Washington University
摘要：This paper studies the impacts of managers in the administrative public sector using novel Italian administrative data containing an output-based measure of productivity. Exploiting the rotation of managers across sites, I find that a one standard deviation increase in managerial talent raises office productivity by 10%. These gains are driven primarily by the exit of older workers who retire when more productive managers take over. I use these estimates to evaluate the optimal allocation of m...
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作者：Bonhomme, Stephane; Lamadon, Thibaut; Manresa, Elena
作者单位：University of Chicago; New York University
摘要：We study discrete panel data methods where unobserved heterogeneity is revealed in a first step, in environments where population heterogeneity is not discrete. We focus on two-step grouped fixed-effects (GFE) estimators, where individuals are first classified into groups using kmeans clustering, and the model is then estimated allowing for group-specific heterogeneity. Our framework relies on two key properties: heterogeneity is a function-possibly nonlinear and time-varying-of a low-dimensio...
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作者：Egger, Dennis; Haushofer, Johannes; Miguel, Edward; Niehaus, Paul; Walker, Michael
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stockholm University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms, and m...
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作者：Denti, Tommaso; Pomatto, Luciano
作者单位：Cornell University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：Smooth ambiguity preferences (Klibanoff, Marinacci, and Mukerji (2005)) describe a decision maker who evaluates each act f according to the twofold expectation V(f)=integral P phi(integral omega u(f)dp)d mu(p) defined by a utility function u, an ambiguity index phi, and a belief mu over a set P of probabilities. We provide an axiomatic foundation for the representation, taking as a primitive a preference over Anscombe-Aumann acts. We study a special case where P is a subjective statistical mod...
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作者：Morelli, Juan M.; Ottonello, Pablo; Perez, Diego J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：We study the role of global financial intermediaries in international lending. We construct a model of the world economy, in which heterogeneous borrowers issue risky securities purchased by financial intermediaries. Aggregate shocks transmit internationally through financial intermediaries' net worth. The strength of this transmission is governed by the degree of frictions intermediaries face in financing their risky investments. We provide direct empirical evidence on this mechanism showing ...
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作者：Giuliano, Laura
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
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作者：La'O, Jennifer; Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Northeastern University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies the optimal conduct of monetary policy in a multisector economy in which firms buy and sell intermediate goods over a production network. We first provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the monetary policy's ability to implement flexible-price equilibria in the presence of nominal rigidities and show that, generically, no monetary policy can implement the first-best allocation. We then characterize the optimal policy in terms of the economy's production network and...
