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作者：Khanna, Gaurav; Murathanoglu, Emir; Theoharides, Caroline; Yang, Dean
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University System of Ohio; Oberlin College; Amherst College; University of Michigan System; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shocks in a shift-share identification strategy across Philippine provinces. Initial migrant income shocks are magnified six-fold over time, increasing domestic income, education levels, migrant skills, and high-skilled migration. Remarkably, 74.9 percent of long-run income gains come from domestic rather than migrant income. Trade driven im...
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作者：Coglianese, John; Olsson, Maria; Patterson, Christina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; BI Norwegian Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010-2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1-2 percentage points. Using administrative mi...
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作者：Gaubert, Cecile; Kline, Patrick; Vergara, Damian; Yagan, Danny
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study optimal income taxation in a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply decisions, and competitive housing and labor markets. Expressions characterizing the optimal tax schedule in each community are provided that capture the fiscal externalities associated with migration and the effects of redistribution between households and landlords. Correlation between skill and locational preferences yields optimal transfers to poor areas, while sorting ba...
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作者：Shepard, Mark; Wagner, Myles
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Are application hassles, or ordeals, an effective way to limit public program enrollment? We provide new evidence by studying (removal of) an auto-enrollment policy for health insurance, adding an extra step to enroll. This minor ordeal has a major impact, reducing enrollment by 33 percent and differentially excluding young, healthy, and economically disadvantaged people. Using a simple model, we show adverse selection-a classic feature of insurance markets-undermines ordeals'standard rational...
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作者：Aspelund, Karl M.; Russo, Anna
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Mechanisms that aim to reduce environmental degradation at low cost can be undermined when participants' conservation actions are not marginal to the incentive-or additional-as the lowest-cost participants may not be the highest social value. We investigate this challenge in the Conservation Reserve Program's auction mechanism for ecosystem services, linking bids to satellite-derived land use. Three-quarters of marginal auction winners are not additional. The heterogeneity in counterfactual la...
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作者：Jensen, Mathias Fjaellegaard; Zhang, Ning
作者单位：University of Oxford; Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：We use Danish administrative data to examine the effects of parental death on labor market outcomes. Leveraging the timing of sudden, first parental deaths and a matched-control difference-in-differences strategy, we find that men's earnings decline by 2 percent, while women's earnings decline by 3 percent following a parental death. Both women and men experience mental health deterioration, leading to increased use of psychological assistance and prescriptions for mental health conditions and...
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作者：Federle, Jonathan; Meier, Andre; Muller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz
作者单位：Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We assemble a new dataset spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 percent in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20 percent. The capital stock, total factor productivity, and equity returns all decline sharply. The economic ramifications of war are not confined to the war site. The evidence points to adverse economic outcomes in other belligerent and third-pa...
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作者：Dillenberger, David; Segal, Uzi
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Boston College
摘要：Consider an economy with equal amounts of N types of goods, to be allocated to agents with strict quasi-convex preferences over lotteries. We show that ex ante, all Pareto-efficient allocations give almost all agents lotteries over at most two outcomes. Our results provide a simple criterion showing that many popular allocation mechanisms are ex ante inefficient. For the case of identical preferences, we establish existence of an efficient solution where all lotteries used are equally attracti...
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作者：Anenberg, Elliot; Scharlemann, Tess; van Straelen, Eileen
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We show that the strong negative effect of higher mortgage rates on cash-out refinancing reflects substitution into other borrowing products, not large changes in total new household borrowing. We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in interest rates due to unconventional monetary policy surprises to show that changes in cash-out and other borrowing are roughly offsetting. The elasticity of new household borrowing with respect to mortgage rates is low and varies little with the borrower's outs...
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作者：Dessein, Wouter; Frankel, Alex; Kartik, Navin
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Chicago; Columbia University
摘要：Many US colleges now use test-optional admissions. A frequent claim is that by not seeing standardized test scores, a college can admit a student body it prefers, say, with more diversity. But how can observing less information improve decisions? This paper proposes that test-optional policies are a response to social pressure on admission decisions. We model a college that bears disutility when it makes admission decisions that society dislikes. Going test optional allows the college to reduc...
