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作者：Einav, Liran; Klopack, Ben; Mahoney, Neale
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：We study one benefit to firms of selling subscriptions: the prospect that consumers will continue to pay for subscriptions they no longer value. We use comprehensive data from a large payment card network to document that months during which cards are replaced, when active renewal is required, are associated with much higher rates of cancellation. Using two stylized models of consumer inertia-driven by inattention or switching costs-we estimate that these cancellation frictions roughly double ...
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作者：Li, Ye
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：The transition toward an intangible-intensive economy reshapes financial systems by creating a self-perpetuating savings glut in the production sector. As intangibles become increasingly important, firms hoard liquidity to finance investment in intangibles of limited pledgeability. Firms' savings feed cheap leverage to financial intermediaries and allow intermediaries to bid up asset prices, which in turn encourages firms to save more for asset creation. This paper develops a macrofinance mode...
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作者：Johnson, Simon; Rachel, Lukasz; Wolfram, Catherine
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：What is the optimal response of a resource exporter when a price cap is imposed on its main export? This paper develops a dynamic framework incorporating stochastic prices, financial frictions, and market power to study this novel tool of statecraft. With the right design, a price cap can incentivize increased extraction, stabilizing prices in the global market. But the stabilizing effects diminish when there is leakage outside the cap. Consequently, weak enforcement of the policy worsens the ...
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作者：Gertler, Mark; Huckfeldt, Christopher; Trigari, Antonella
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bocconi University
摘要：We revisit the role of temporary layoffs in the business cycle. While some have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify from the data an important countercyclical destabilizing effect due to loss-of-recall, whereby workers in temporary-layoff unemployment lose their job permanently. We develop a quantitative model allowing for endogenous flows of workers across employment and both temporary-layoff and jobless unemployment. The model captures both pre-and post-pandemi...
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作者：Carril, Rodrigo; Gonzalez-Lira, Andres; Walker, Michael S.
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：We study the effects of intensifying competition for contracts in the context of US Defense procurement. Leveraging a discontinuous regulation that mandates agencies to publicize certain contract opportunities, we document that expanding the set of bidders reduces award prices but deteriorates post-award performance in terms of cost overruns and delays. We develop and estimate an auction model with endogenous entry and stochastic execution performance, in which the buyer endogenously chooses t...
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作者：Akbarpour, Mohammad; Malladi, Suraj; Saberi, Amin
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：Identifying the optimal set of individuals to first receive information (seeds) in a social network to maximize expected diffusion is a widely studied question in many settings. Several studies propose network-centrality-based heuristics to select seeds likely to increase diffusion. Here, we show that, for the classic independent cascade model of diffusion, either seeding a few more individuals at random can prompt a larger diffusion than optimal seeding or optimal seeding itself results in li...
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作者：Gomez-cram, Roberto; Lawrence, Alastair
作者单位：University of London; London Business School
摘要：Software is one of the most important assets that needs to be priced in the digital economy. It has emerged as a disruptive technology, with companies primarily valued for their software offerings growing from 2 percent to 13 percent of market share between 1996 and 2023. We document persistent anomalies in growth forecasts and stock returns for software companies, indicating significant deviations from rational expectations over multiple decades. Our findings are consistent with Bayesian inve...
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作者：Brunnermeier, Markus; Correia, Sergio; Luck, Stephan; Verner, Emil; Zimmermann, Tom
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Cologne
摘要：This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro-and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919-1923, we show inflation led to a large reduction in real debt burdens and bankruptcies. Firms with higher nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation experienced a larger decline in interest expenses, a relative increase in their equity values, and higher employment during the inflation. T...
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作者：Rocheteau, Guillaume
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine
摘要：How quickly does a fiat money become valueless? I study the speculative hyperinflation equilibria of continuous-time economies with decentralized markets where money is essential. I establish necessary and sufficient conditions under which money dies in finite time. A necessary condition is that the liquidity return of money grows unbounded as the value of money approaches zero. Under CRRA preferences, the longevity of money shrinks with the money growth rate and the frequency of liquidity nee...
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作者：Andrabi, Tahir; Bau, Natalie; Das, Jishnu; Khwaja, Asim i.
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Pomona College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of California Los Angeles; Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University
摘要：We estimate and validate test score-based measures of school quality ( school value added, or SVA) in Pakistan. We document substantial variation in SVA within villages and within the public and private sectors, leading to a wide range of possible estimates of the private premium. We also show that parents value SVA. Heterogeneity in parental demand for quality helps explain both the evolution of the market over time and cross-market variation in school quality. The supply side responds to par...
