The Price of War

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Federle, Jonathan; Meier, Andre; Muller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz
• 署名单位: Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20241355
• 发表日期: 2026-03
• 页码: 791-827
• 关键词: economic-growth; DANGEROUS DYADS; CIVIL-WARS; TRADE; CONFLICT; POLITICS; HISTORY; MARKETS; shocks; MYTH

摘要

We assemble a new dataset spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 percent in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20 percent. The capital stock, total factor productivity, and equity returns all decline sharply. The economic ramifications of war are not confined to the war site. The evidence points to adverse economic outcomes in other belligerent and third-party countries if they are exposed to the war site through trade linkages or share a common border.