Monetary Policy and the Labor Market: A Quasi-experiment in Sweden

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coglianese, John; Olsson, Maria; Patterson, Christina
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; BI Norwegian Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231167
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3451-3486
• 关键词: identification; transmission; rigidities; shocks; matter; wages; say

摘要

We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010-2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1-2 percentage points. Using administrative microdata, we find that sectors with nominal wage rigidity drove much of the response and that the monetary contraction was more regressive than the typical business cycle. (JEL E24, E32, E43, E52, E58)