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作者：Fong, Meng-Jhang; Lin, Po-Hsuan; Palfrey, Thomas R.
作者单位：Max Planck Society; University of Virginia; California Institute of Technology
摘要：This paper develops a framework to extend the strategic form analysis of cursed equilibrium (CE) developed by Eyster and Rabin (2005) to multistage games. The approach uses behavioral strategies rather than normal form mixed strategies and imposes sequential rationality. We define and characterize properties of cursed sequential equilibrium (CSE) and apply it to four canonical economic applications: signaling games, reputation building, durable goods monopoly, and the dirty faces game. These a...
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作者：Gershkov, Alex; Moldovanu, Benny; Strack, Philipp; Zhang, Mengxi
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; Hebrew University of Jerusalem; University of Surrey; University of Bonn; Yale University
摘要：We use the tools of mechanism design combined with the theory of risk measures to analyze how a cash-constrained owner of an asset with known, stochastic returns raises capital from a population of investors who differ in their risk aversion and budget constraints. The issuer partitions the asset's cash flow into several asset-backed securities, one for each type of investor. The optimal partition conforms to the commonly observed practice of tranching into senior debt, junior debt, and equity...
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作者：Szeidl, Adam; Szucs, Ferenc
摘要：We model populism as the dissemination of a false alternative reality, according to which the intellectual elite conspires against the populist for purely ideological reasons. If enough voters are receptive to it, this alternative reality-by discrediting the elite's truthful message-reduces political accountability. Elite criticism, because it is more consistent with the alternative reality, strengthens receptive voters' support for the populist. Alternative realities are endogenously conspira...
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作者：Antolin-Diaz, Juan; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Military spending has large and persistent effects on output because it shifts the composition of public spending toward R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium term and increases productivity and GDP at longer horizons. Public R&D expenditure stimulates economic activities beyond the business cycle even when it is not associated with war spending. In contrast, the effects of public investment are shorter-lived, while public consumption has a modest impact at most hori...
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作者：Haddad, Valentin; Moreira, Alan; Muir, Tyler
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester
摘要：At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states-policy puts-explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened ...
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作者：Heimer, Rawley; Iliewa, Zwetelina; Imas, Alex; Weber, Martin
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Bonn; University of Chicago; University of Mannheim
摘要：We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy-planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial ...
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作者：Abou Daher, Chaza; Field, Erica; Swanson, Kendal; Vyborny, Kate
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Duke University; The World Bank
摘要：We conduct a field experiment to quantify the impact of the lifting of the Saudi women's driving ban on women's employment by randomizing rationed spaces in driver's training. Treated women are 41 percent more likely to be employed yet are 19 percent less likely to be able to make purchases without family permission. Patterns of heterogeneous treatment effects reveal that these divergent impacts of access to driving are experienced by distinct subgroups of women. The results underscore the imp...
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作者：Amodio, Francesco; Medina, Pamela; Morlacco, Monica
作者单位：McGill University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Toronto; University Toronto Scarborough; University of Toronto; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper shows that self-employment shapes labor market power in low-income countries, with implications for industrial development. Using Peruvian data, we find that wage-setting power increases with employer concentration but less so where self-employment is more prevalent. A general equilibrium model shows that in oligopsonistic labor markets, self-employment raises the supply elasticity of wage labor, weakening employer market power. However, by the same mechanism, procompetitive policie...
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作者：Gormsen, Niels Joachim; Huber, Kilian
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We construct a dataset of firms' discount rates (i.e., required returns to capital) and perceived cost of capital using corporate conference calls. The relation between discount rates and the cost of capital is far below the one-to-one mapping assumed in standard theory, as it takes many years for changes in the cost of capital to be incorporated into discount rates. This pattern leads to large and time-varying discount rate wedges that affect firm investment. Moreover, increasing discount rat...
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作者：Humlum, Anders; Munch, Jakob R.; Plato, Pernille
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：We provide the first evidence on how workers invest in human capital after losing ability. Using quasi-random work accidents in Danish administrative data, we find that workers enroll in bachelor's programs after physical injuries, pursuing degrees that build on their past training and experience. Exploiting institutional differences in the stackability of degrees, we find that higher education moves injured workers from disability benefits to full-time employment, earning 25 percent more than...
