Trade Shocks and Credit Reallocation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Federico, Stefano; Hassan, Fadi; Rappoport, Veronica
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20200704
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1142-1169
• 关键词: firm-level evidence; import competition; liberalization evidence; RISK-MANAGEMENT; INVESTMENT; transmission; frictions; CRISIS

摘要

This paper identifies a credit-supply contraction that arises endogenously after trade liberalization. Banks with loan portfolios concentrated in sectors exposed to competition from China face an increase in nonperforming loans after China's entry into the World Trade Organization. As a result, they reduce the supply of credit to firms, irrespective of the firm's sector of operation. This cut in credit translates into lower employment, investment, and output. Through this mechanism, the financial channel amplifies the shock to firms already hit by import competition from China and passes it on to firms in sectors expected to expand upon trade liberalization. (JEL D22, F14, G21, G31, G32, L25, P33)