Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Munro, Evan; Kuang, Xu; Wager, Stefan
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230039
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 3273-3321
• 关键词: Causal Inference; instrumental variables; identification; demand; EQUATIONS

摘要

Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in a marketplace setting requires assessing both the direct treatment benefit and spillovers induced by changes to the market equilibrium. We show how to identify and estimate policy-relevant treatment effects using a unit-randomized trial run within a single large market. A Bernoulli-randomized trial allows consistent estimation of direct effects and of treatment-heterogeneity measures that enable welfare-improving targeting. Estimating spillovers-and providing confidence intervals for the direct effect-requires estimates of price elasticities, which we provide using an augmented experimental design. We illustrate our results using a simulation calibrated to a conditional cash-transfer experiment in the Philippines. (JEL C21, C51, I32, I38, O15)