The global transmission of US monetary policy☆

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Degasperi, Riccardo; Hong, Seokki Simon; Ricco, Giovanni
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Bank of England; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104259
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY; vector autoregressions; Emerging markets; capital controls; shocks; spillovers; euro; fluctuations; trilemma; channels

摘要

Fed's decisions affect global economic conditions, with tightenings leading to widespread recessionary effects. Using a state-of-the-art identification strategy, a dataset covering 30 economies, and techniques for constructing empirical counterfactuals, we show that commodity and oil prices play a critical role in propagating US monetary policy to global headline inflation, generating predominantly deflationary effects. We refer to this novel mechanism as the 'commodity price channel' of US monetary policy.