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作者：Pedemonte, Mathieu; Toma, Hiroshi; Verdugo, Esteban
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectation-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an anchoring-to-the-past mechanism. Using survey data, we show that the model replicates US consumers' inflation expectations and their heterogeneity across cohorts. We introduce this mechanism into a New Keynesian m...
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作者：Jetter, Michael
作者单位：University of Western Australia
摘要：Is humanity's circle of moral concern expanding? I explore frequencies of morally universal language in 15 million book publications in American English, British English, French, Spanish, German and Italian from 1800-2000. In each language, morally universal terminology diminished markedly. This pattern also emerges in Chinese, Russian and Hebrew books. I test two prominent hypotheses predicting moral universalism, pertaining to reason and religiosity. Reason-based terminology indeed correlate...
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作者：Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people's time preferences. This paper shows that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on long-standing within-country disparities. We use social media data-Facebook interests-to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. The approach is first validated with a cross-country analysis of patience and Facebook in...
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作者：Janssen, Maarten C. W.; Jungbauer, Thomas; Preuss, Marcel; Williams, Cole
作者单位：University of Vienna; Cornell University
摘要：We study a search platform that ranks firms' products across sponsored and organic positions, accounting for the incentives of both firms and consumers. To characterise an optimal ranking when the number of firms is large, we formulate a Mixing Principle for Consumer Search, adapting tools from the social learning literature. The platform assigns the products it deems best to sponsored positions and obfuscates the content of organic positions, subject to consumers' participation constraints. O...
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作者：Andersen, Steffen; Brandon, Alec; Gneezy, Uri; List, John A.
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Johns Hopkins University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We experimentally study the effects of transitory incentives and income predicted by models of reference-dependent labour supply. Visiting an open-air market in India, we induce experimental variation in: (i) incentives by offering vendors a supplemental wage over the course of two days and (ii) income by, one morning, administering a substantial overpayment for a good sold in the market. We find that incentives have a staggered effect on hours worked: initially vendors do not respond, but by ...
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作者：Orchard, Jacob D.; Ramey, Valerie A.; Wieland, Johannes F.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Stanford University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Macroeconomics has increasingly adopted tools from the applied micro 'credibility revolution' to estimate micro parameters that can inform macro questions. In this paper, we argue that researchers should take advantage of this confluence of micro and macro to take the credibility revolution one step further. We argue that researchers should assess the plausibility of the micro estimates and macro models by constructing macro counterfactuals for historical periods and comparing these counterfac...
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作者：Faguet, Jean-Paul; Matajira, Camilo; Sanchez, Fabio
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：The Spanish encomienda, a colonial forced-labour institution that lasted three centuries, killed many indigenous people and caused others to flee into nomadism. What were its long-term effects? We digitise a great deal of historical data from the mid-1500s onwards, impute pre-Hispanic populations at the municipal level and reconstruct the Spanish conquerors' route through Colombia using detailed topographical features to calculate their least-cost path. We show that Colombian municipalities wi...
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作者：Belfiori, Elisa; Macera, Manuel
作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：This paper develops a framework to integrate demographic change into climate policy analysis. We build an overlapping-generations climate-economy model with a rich demographic structure, allowing population growth and survival probabilities to vary over time. These features endogenously determine the age composition of society and shape aggregate preferences. A central result of our framework is an aggregation result: despite the heterogeneity across cohorts, the planner's problem can be recas...
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作者：Chaudhary, Latika; Iyer, Lakshmi
作者单位：United States Department of Defense; United States Navy; Naval Postgraduate School; University of Notre Dame
摘要：We examine the human development consequences of transferring responsibility for public service provision from state to local governments in India using state-level variation in the timing of administrative decentralisation reforms. We find that devolving responsibility for health and education functions does not improve child mortality or school completion. Further, partial devolution of service responsibility without concomitant authority over personnel or taxation results in a significant w...
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作者：Gaetani, Ruben; Huang, Naqun; Li, Jing; Yang, Yanmin
作者单位：University of Toronto; Nanjing Audit University; Singapore Management University
摘要：How did COVID-19 affect the innovation advantages of dense locations? Using data on the universe of US patent applications, we find that the density premium in the production of novel inventions declined by 18.5%-22.9% in 2020-1 relative to its pre-pandemic level. Smartphone data on local mobility suggest that the drop in the frequency of local interactions can explain a significant portion of this effect. While COVID-19 resulted in a temporary setback in the innovation advantages of dense loc...
