作者：Ahmad, Husnain F.; Gibson, Matthew; Nadeem, Fatiq; Nasim, Sanval; Rezaee, Arman
作者单位：Trinity University; Williams College; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Colby College; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Scarce information and human capital may make it difficult to form accurate expectations, limiting responses to uncertain environmental threats like air pollution. We study two cross-randomised interventions in Lahore, Pakistan: (i) general training in forecasting and (ii) provision of air pollution forecasts. Both reduced the subjects' own air pollution forecast errors; the training effect suggests that modest educational interventions can durably improve forecasting skills. Forecast receipt ...
作者：Gauriot, Romain; Page, Lionel
作者单位：Deakin University; University of Queensland
摘要：Using a natural experiment setting in binary options markets, we compare the evolution of market prices in situations where the occurrence of public information shocks is contingent on knife-edge conditions and can be considered nearly random. We find that prices mostly react efficiently and quickly to information shocks, adjusting to the new fundamental value. Nonetheless, we observe a tendency for prices to initially under-react when the information shocks are large. This under-reaction is s...
