Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Pedemonte, Mathieu; Toma, Hiroshi; Verdugo, Esteban
• 署名单位: Inter-American Development Bank; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf115
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Macroeconomic expectations; JUDGMENT; MODEL

摘要

We explore the implications of heterogeneous, history-dependent inflation expectations in a general equilibrium setting. We propose an experience-based expectation-augmented Kalman filter to represent consumers' heterogeneous inflation expectations, where heterogeneity arises from an anchoring-to-the-past mechanism. Using survey data, we show that the model replicates US consumers' inflation expectations and their heterogeneity across cohorts. We introduce this mechanism into a New Keynesian model and find that heterogeneous expectations anchor aggregate responses to the agents' inflation history, producing sluggish expectation dynamics. Central banks should be active to prevent inflationary episodes that agents will remember far into the future.