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作者：Hochmuth, Philipp; Krusell, Per; Mitman, Kurt
作者单位：Stockholm University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The EU has embarked on an ambitious path towards climate neutrality. How difficult will this transition be for the population as a whole and for different subsets of consumers? This paper investigates this question using a dynamic general-equilibrium model that captures a key feature of energy consumption: the relative energy content of one's consumption basket falls significantly as a function of one's relative income. Thus, low-income consumers are expected to be hit harder by the higher ene...
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作者：Eftekhari, Aryan; Folini, Doris; Friedl, Aleksandra; Kubler, Felix; Scheidegger, Simon; Schenk, Olaf
作者单位：Universita della Svizzera Italiana; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; University of Zurich; University of Lausanne; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon cycle emulators for macroeconomic models. The framework is implemented as a generalised linear multi-reservoir (box) model that conserves key physical quantities and can be customised for specific applications. We consider three versions of the carbon cycle emulator, whi...
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作者：Dengler, Thomas; Gehrke, Britta; Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Free University of Berlin; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Technische Universitat Wien
摘要：During the COVID-19 crisis, most OECD countries used short-time work (subsidised reductions in working hours) to preserve employment. This paper documents that short-time work affects the behaviour of firms (supply) and households (demand). First, using household survey data from Germany, we show that the consumption risk of short-time work is lower than that of unemployment. Second, we construct a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous workers and firms, incomplete asset markets and labour ma...
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作者：Boneva, Teodora; Golin, Marta; Kaufmann, Katja; Rauh, Christopher
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of Zurich; University of Bayreuth; Barcelona School of Economics; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); University of Cambridge
摘要：We provide representative evidence on the perceived returns to maternal labour supply. A mother's decision to work is perceived to have sizeable impacts on child skills, family outcomes, and the mother's future labour market outcomes. Beliefs about the impact of additional household income can account for some, but not all, of the perceived positive effects. We further document labour supply intentions under different policy scenarios related to childcare availability and quality, two factors ...
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作者：Gollin, Douglas; Wolfersberger, Julien
作者单位：AgroParisTech; Tufts University; University of Oxford; AgroParisTech; Universite Paris Saclay; INRAE
摘要：In this paper, we study how new roads affect the spatial patterns of agricultural production and consequently impact deforestation and development outcomes, focusing on the historical experience of Brazil. We find that the expansion of Brazil's road network since the 1990s can account for nearly a tenth of the total amount of deforestation that the country has experienced, with significant variation across regions. Perhaps surprisingly, our results suggest that the increase in agricultural inc...
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作者：Meng, Juanjuan; Wang, Hui; Yang, Yu (Alan); Zhang, Mingshan
作者单位：Peking University; China United Network Communications Limited
摘要：Low fertility presents a major challenge for many nations. We study whether restricting competition-driven private tutoring can enhance fertility intentions by analysing China's 2021 private tutoring ban. Using nationwide surveys, we elicit respondents' fertility intentions under scenarios with and without the policy. The tutoring ban significantly increases expected total fertility by 7%-8%, with larger effects in cities under greater policy intensity. Decomposition reveals that the primary d...
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作者：Veiga, Francisco Jose; Veiga, Linda Goncalves; Swank, Otto
作者单位：Universidade do Minho; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：Political agency models predict that electoral concerns induce politicians to put effort into making policies that benefit citizens. We exploit the introduction of mayoral term limits in Portugal to investigate how electoral incentives affect incumbents' efforts to obtain EU grants. We focus on EU grants because getting them requires effort. Moreover, by obtaining EU grants, mayors can do more for their citizens. We focus on Portugal because it provides a quasi-natural experimental setting to ...
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作者：Markiewicz, Agnieszka; Silvestrini, Riccardo
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Tinbergen Institute; University of Naples Federico II
摘要：In recent decades, market power has been on the rise, although its increase varies between sectors. We argue that this heterogeneity can be partially attributed to sector-specific differences in turbulence dynamics. Turbulence, a measure of firms' churn over the revenue productivity distribution, reflects firms' ability to sustain their productivity over time. In a dynamic oligopolistic competition model, an increase in turbulence accelerates the turnover of leaders, and triggers reallocation ...
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作者：Liu, Manwei; Zhang, Sili
作者单位：Nanjing Audit University; University of Munich
摘要：Can people counteract biased narratives with subsequent information? Using an online experiment where counteracting may have the best odds by design, we investigate this question by first randomly assigning subjects to read different narratives that contain the same facts, and then offering them the opportunity to acquire and process balanced arguments. We document three main findings. First, subjects shift their attitudes towards the standpoint of the randomly assigned narrative, knowing that...
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作者：Katovich, Erik; Moffette, Fanny
作者单位：University of Connecticut; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：Land conversion to agriculture is a defining environmental challenge for tropical regions. We construct a novel panel dataset of land-use changes on the properties of municipal politicians and campaign donors in the Brazilian Amazon to assess channels through which local politics may drive land conversion. Estimating event studies around close mayoral elections, we find that large landholders significantly increase soy cultivation while the candidate they donated to is in office. This suggests...
