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作者：Brooks, Benjamin; Frankel, Alexander; Kamenica, Emir
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：If experiment A is Blackwell more informative than experiment B, it is always possible that A and B are induced by signals A' and B' such that A' is a refinement of B', that is, A' entails observing B' plus some additional information. We first show that this result does not extend beyond pairs of experiments: There exist collections of experiments that cannot be induced by a collection of signals so that whenever two experiments are Blackwell ordered, the associated signals are refinement ord...
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作者：Peters, Michael
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper, I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War, 8 million ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties, I sh...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Carlos Escanciano, Juan; Ichimura, Hidehiko; Newey, Whitney K.; Robins, James M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Arizona; University of Tokyo; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
摘要：Many economic and causal parameters depend on nonparametric or high dimensional first steps. We give a general construction of locally robust/orthogonal moment functions for GMM, where first steps have no effect, locally, on average moment functions. Using these orthogonal moments reduces model selection and regularization bias, as is important in many applications, especially for machine learning first steps. Also, associated standard errors are robust to misspecification when there is the sa...
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作者：Dai, Tianjiao; Toikka, Juuso
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We show that demanding team incentives to be robust to nonquantifiable uncertainty about the game played by the agents leads to contracts that align the agents' interests. Such contracts have a natural interpretation as team-based compensation. Under budget balance they reduce to linear contracts, thus identifying profit-sharing, or equity, as an optimal contract absent a sink or a source of funds. A linear contract also gives the best profit guarantee to an outside residual claimant. These co...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Psaradakis, Zacharias; Sola, Martin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of London; Birkbeck University London; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions, which allow for autoregressive dynamics in the observable process, Markov regime sequences with covariate-dependent transition matrices, and possible model misspecification. A Monte Carlo study examines the finite-sample properties of the ML estimator in correctly spe...
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作者：Auerbach, Eric
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：How can one determine whether a treatment, such as the introduction of a social program or trade shock, alters agents' incentives to form links in a network? This paper proposes analogs of a two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, widely used in the literature to test the null hypothesis of no treatment effects, for network data. It first specifies a testing problem in which the null hypothesis is that two networks are drawn from the same random graph model. It then describes two randomization tes...
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作者：Sentana, Enrique
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作者：Deshpande, Manasi; Lockwood, Lee M.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：The public debate over disability insurance has centered on concerns about individuals without severe health conditions receiving benefits. We go beyond health risk alone to quantify the overall insurance value of U.S. disability programs, including value from insuring nonhealth risk. We find that disability recipients, especially those with less-severe health conditions, are much more likely to have experienced a wide variety of nonhealth shocks than nonrecipients. Selection into disability r...
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作者：Perego, Jacopo; Yuksel, Sevgi
作者单位：Columbia University; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：We study the competitive provision and endogenous acquisition of political information. Our main result identifies a natural equilibrium channel through which a more competitive market decreases the efficiency of policy outcomes. A critical insight we put forward is that competition among information providers leads to informational specialization: firms provide relatively less information on issues that are of common interest and relatively more information on issues on which agents' preferen...
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作者：Limodio, Nicola
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper investigates the effect of terrorism financing and recruitment on attacks. I exploit a Sharia-compliant institution in Pakistan, which induces unintended and quasi-experimental variation in the funding of terrorist groups through their religious affiliation. The results indicate that higher terrorism financing, in a given location and period, generate more attacks in the same location and period. Financing exhibits a complementarity in producing attacks with terrorist recruitment, m...
