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作者：Norets, Andriy; Pelenis, Justinas
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and a possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we derive lower bounds on the estimation rates. Next, we consider a nonparametric mixture of normals model that uses continuous latent variables for the discrete part of the observations. We show that the posterior in this model contracts at rates that are equal ...
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作者：Elliott, Graham; Kudrin, Nikolay; Wuthrich, Kaspar
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We theoretically analyze the problem of testing for p-hacking based on distributions of p-values across multiple studies. We provide general results for when such distributions have testable restrictions (are non-increasing) under the null of no p-hacking. We find novel additional testable restrictions for p-values based on t-tests. Specifically, the shape of the power functions results in both complete monotonicity as well as bounds on the distribution of p-values. These testable restrictions...
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作者：Sentana, Enrique
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作者：Chen, Chia-Hui; Ishida, Junichiro; Suen, Wing
作者单位：Kyoto University; University of Osaka; University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper provides a general analysis of signaling under double-crossing preferences with a continuum of types. There are natural economic environments where the indifference curves of two types cross twice, such that the celebrated single-crossing property fails to hold. Equilibrium exhibits a threshold type below which types choose actions that are fully revealing and above which they pool in a pairwise fashion, with a gap separating the actions chosen by these two sets of types. The result...
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作者：Carlana, Michela; La Ferrara, Eliana; Pinotti, Paolo
作者单位：Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
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作者：Sinander, Ludvig
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：I prove an envelope theorem with a converse: the envelope formula is equivalent to a first-order condition. Like Milgrom and Segal's (2002) envelope theorem, my result requires no structure on the choice set. I use the converse envelope theorem to extend to general outcomes and preferences the canonical result in mechanism design that any increasing allocation is implementable, and apply this to selling information.
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作者：Dworczak, Piotr; Pavan, Alessandro
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：We propose a robust solution concept for Bayesian persuasion that accounts for the Sender's concern that her Bayesian belief about the environment-which we call the conjecture-may be false. Specifically, the Sender is uncertain about the exogenous sources of information the Receivers may learn from, and about strategy selection. She first identifies all information policies that yield the largest payoff in the worst-case scenario, that is, when Nature provides information and coordinates the R...
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作者：Halac, Marina; Yared, Pierre
作者单位：Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present-biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which a...
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作者：Caicedo, Santiago; Espinosa, Miguel; Seibold, Arthur
作者单位：Clemson University; Pompeu Fabra University; Bocconi University; University of Mannheim
摘要：We study firm responses to a large-scale change in apprenticeship regulation in Colombia. The reform requires firms to train, setting apprentice quotas that vary discontinuously in firm size. We document strong heterogeneity in responses across sectors, where firms in sectors with high skill requirements tend to avoid training apprentices, while firms in low-skill sectors seek apprentices. Guided by these reduced-form findings, we structurally estimate firms' training costs. Especially in high...
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作者：Miao, Jianjun; Wu, Jieran; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：Boston University; Zhejiang University; Zhejiang University; University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We study optimal control problems in the multivariate linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework under rational inattention. We propose a three-step procedure to solve this problem using semidefinite programming and derive the optimal signal structure without strong prior restrictions. We analyze both the transition dynamics of the optimal posterior covariance matrix and its steady state. We characterize the optimal information structure for some special cases and develop numerical algorithms for gen...
