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作者：Liang, Annie; Mu, Xiaosheng; Syrgkanis, Vasilis
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University; Princeton University; Microsoft
摘要：An agent has access to multiple information sources, each modeled as a Brownian motion whose drift provides information about a different component of an unknown Gaussian state. Information is acquired continuously-where the agent chooses both which sources to sample from, and also how to allocate attention across them-until an endogenously chosen time, at which point a decision is taken. We demonstrate conditions on the agent's prior belief under which it is possible to exactly characterize t...
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作者：Muller, Ulrich K.; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：We propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that account for many forms of spatial correlation. The interval has the familiar estimator plus and minus a standard error times a critical value form, but we propose new methods for constructing the standard error and the critical value. The standard error is constructed using population principal components from a given worst-case spatial correlation model. The critical value is chosen to ensure coverage in a benchmark parametric mod...
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作者：Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou
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作者：Sonmez, Tayfun; Yenmez, M. Bumin
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：Sanctioned by its constitution, India is home to the world's most comprehensive affirmative action program, where historically discriminated groups are protected with vertical reservations implemented as set asides, and other disadvantaged groups are protected with horizontal reservations implemented as minimum guarantees. A mechanism mandated by the Supreme Court in 1995 suffers from important anomalies, triggering countless litigations in India. Foretelling a recent reform correcting the fla...
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作者：Andrews, Isaiah; Mikusheva, Anna
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This paper studies optimal decision rules, including estimators and tests, for weakly identified GMM models. We derive the limit experiment for weakly identified GMM, and propose a theoretically-motivated class of priors which give rise to quasi-Bayes decision rules as a limiting case. Together with results in the previous literature, this establishes desirable properties for the quasi-Bayes approach regardless of model identification status, and we recommend quasi-Bayes for settings where ide...
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作者：Cheng, Xu; Dou, Winston Wei; Liao, Zhipeng
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper shows that robust inference under weak identification is important to the evaluation of many influential macro asset pricing models, including (time-varying) rare-disaster risk models and long-run risk models. Building on recent developments in the conditional inference literature, we provide a novel conditional specification test by simulating the critical value conditional on a sufficient statistic. This sufficient statistic can be intuitively interpreted as a measure capturing th...
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作者：Crump, Richard K.; Gospodinov, Nikolay
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We demonstrate that characterizing the minimal dimension of the term structure of interest rates is more challenging than currently appreciated. The highly structured polynomial patterns of the factor loadings, which are widely reported and discussed in the literature, reflect local correlations of smooth curves across maturities. We derive analytical expressions for the loadings of cross-sectionally dependent processes that tend to favor a much lower dimension than the true dimension of the u...
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作者：Angrist, Joshua D.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：The view that empirical strategies in economics should be transparent and credible now goes almost without saying. By revealing for whom particular instrumental variables (IV) estimates are valid, the local average treatment effects (LATE) framework helped make this so. This lecture uses empirical examples, mostly involving effects of charter and exam school attendance, to illustrate the value of the LATE framework for causal inference. LATE distinguishes independence conditions satisfied by r...
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作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso; Brandt, Loren; Leight, Jessica; Restuccia, Diego
作者单位：York University - Canada; University of Toronto; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use household-level panel data from China and a quantitative framework to document the extent and consequences of factor misallocation in agriculture. We find that there are substantial within-village frictions in both the land and capital markets linked to land institutions in rural China that disproportionately constrain the more productive farmers. These frictions reduce aggregate agricultural productivity by affecting two key margins: (1) the allocation of resources across farmers (misa...
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作者：Dunn, Abe; Hall, Anne; Dauda, Seidu
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; The World Bank
摘要：More than two decades ago, a well-known study on heart attack treatments provided evidence suggesting that, when appropriately adjusted for quality, medical care prices were actually declining (Cutler, McClellan, Newhouse, and Remler (1998)). Our paper revisits this subject by leveraging estimates from more than 8000 cost-effectiveness studies across a broad range of conditions and treatments. We find large quality-adjusted price declines associated with treatment innovations. To incorporate t...
