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作者：Allen, Treb; Atkin, David
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second-moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro-data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted ...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Newey, Whitney K.; Singh, Rahul
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include policy effects, average derivatives, regression decompositions, average treatment effects, causal mediation, and parameters of economic structural models. The regressions may be high-dimensional, making machine learning useful. Plugging machine learners into identifying equations can lead to poor inference due to bias from regularization and/or model selection. This paper gives automatic debiasing for linear and nonline...
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作者：Armstrong, Mark; Vickers, John
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：We explore patterns of price competition in an oligopoly where consumers vary in the set of firms they consider for their purchase and buy from the lowest-priced firm they consider. We study a pattern of consideration, termed symmetric interactions, that generalizes models used in existing work (duopoly, symmetric firms, and firms with independent reach). Within this class, equilibrium profits are proportional to a firm's reach, firms with a larger reach set higher average prices, and a reduct...
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作者：Armstrong, Timothy B.; Kolesar, Michal; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel
作者单位：University of Southern California; Princeton University
摘要：We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that assume a normal distribution for the means (Morris (1983b)) may substantially undercover when this assumption is violated. In contrast, our EBCIs control coverage regardless of the means distribution, while remaining close in length to the parametric EBCIs wh...
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作者：Bassi, Vittorio; Muoio, Raffaela; Porzio, Tommaso; Sen, Ritwika; Tugume, Esau
作者单位：University of Southern California; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University
摘要：Many firms in developing countries could be too small to adopt modern technology embodied in expensive production machines. This paper shows that rental market interactions allow these small firms to increase their effective scale and mechanize production. We conduct a survey of manufacturing firms in Uganda, which uncovers an active rental market for large machines between small firms in informal clusters. We then build an equilibrium model of firm behavior and estimate it with our data. We f...
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作者：Moll, Benjamin; Rachel, Lukasz; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; University College London; Boston University
摘要：The benefits of new technologies accrue not only to high-skilled labor but also to owners of capital in the form of higher capital incomes. This increases inequality. To make this argument, we develop a tractable theory that links technology to the distribution of income and wealth-and not just that of wages-and use it to study the distributional effects of automation. We isolate a new theoretical mechanism: automation increases inequality by raising returns to wealth. The flip side of such re...
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作者：Auerbach, Eric
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：I study a regression model in which one covariate is an unknown function of a latent driver of link formation in a network. Rather than specify and fit a parametric network formation model, I introduce a new method based on matching pairs of agents with similar columns of the squared adjacency matrix, the ijth entry of which contains the number of other agents linked to both agents i and j. The intuition behind this approach is that for a large class of network formation models the columns of ...
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作者：Leung, Michael P.
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies causal inference in randomized experiments under network interference. Commonly used models of interference posit that treatments assigned to alters beyond a certain network distance from the ego have no effect on the ego's response. However, this assumption is violated in common models of social interactions. We propose a substantially weaker model of approximate neighborhood interference (ANI) under which treatments assigned to alters further from the ego have a smaller, b...
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作者：Kekre, Rohan; Lenel, Moritz
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the transmission of monetary policy through risk premia in a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian environment. Heterogeneity in households' marginal propensity to take risk (MPR) summarizes differences in portfolio choice on the margin. An unexpected reduction in the nominal interest rate redistributes to households with high MPRs, lowering risk premia and amplifying the stimulus to the real economy. Quantitatively, this mechanism rationalizes the role of news about future excess returns...
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作者：Ball, Ian; Jackson, Matthew O.; Kattwinkel, Deniz
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Stanford University; University of London; University College London
