MARKET SIZE AND SPATIAL GROWTH-EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY'S POST-WAR POPULATION EXPULSIONS

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Peters, Michael
• 署名单位: Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: ECONOMETRICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0012-9682
• DOI: 10.3982/ECTA18002
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 2357-2396
• 关键词: immigration; IMPACT; TRADE; PRODUCTIVITY; migration

摘要

Virtually all theories of economic growth predict a positive relationship between population size and productivity. In this paper, I study a particular historical episode to provide direct evidence for the empirical relevance of such scale effects. In the aftermath of the Second World War, 8 million ethnic Germans were expelled from their domiciles in Eastern Europe and transferred to West Germany. This inflow increased the German population by almost 20%. Using variation across counties, I show that the settlement of refugees had large and persistent effects on the size of the local population, manufacturing employment, and income per capita. These findings are quantitatively consistent with an idea-based model of spatial growth if population mobility is subject to frictions and productivity spillovers occur locally. The estimated model implies that the refugee settlement increased aggregate income per capita by about 12% after 25 years and triggered a process of industrialization in rural areas.