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作者：Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
摘要：This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers'expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across ...
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作者：Chi, Chun-che; Schmitt-grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A central prediction of open economy models with a pecuniary externality due to a collateral constraint is that the unregulated economy overborrows relative to what occurs under optimal policy. A maintained assumption in this literature is that households borrow directly from foreign lenders. This paper shows that if foreign lending is intermediated by domestic banks and the government can pay interest on bank reserves and impose capital controls, the unregulated economy underborrows. The opti...
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作者：Sims, Christopher A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：When government debt pays a lower return than private assets, the reasoning in Friedman's (1969) essay on the optimal quantity of money suggests that it would be optimal to expand the debt until its return matched that on private assets. When the only other source of revenue is a distorting tax, however, this is not generally true. In a perfect foresight model, a benevolent government that can make credible commitments chooses a large gap in returns initially and high distorting taxation in th...
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作者：Cai, Xiaoming; Gautier, Pieter; Wolthoff, Ronald
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Toronto
摘要：We examine how search frictions impact labor market sorting by constructing a model consistent with evidence that employers interview a subset of a pool of applicants. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for sorting in applications and matches. Positive sorting is obtained when production complementarities outweigh a counterforce measured by a (novel) quality-quantity elasticity. Interestingly, the threshold for the complementarities depends on the fraction of high-type workers and c...
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作者：Lee, Byoungchan
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：I construct an incomplete market model featuring a closed-form expression for optimal consumption. In the model, individual consumption is an isoelastic function of wealth, inclusive of income, yielding partial consumption smoothing based on borrowing and lending in response to income shocks. I show that the model replicates several empirical characteristics of inequality in consumption, income, and wealth and their dynamics at the individual level. Using the model, I show that the rising weal...
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作者：Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：A model with two essential elements-sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies-explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk, and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal trade-offs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits and in...
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作者：Lieb, Lenard; Jassem, Adam; Almeida, Rui jorge; Bastuerk, Nalan; Smeekes, Stephan
作者单位：Maastricht University
摘要：Economic agents react to signals about future tax policy changes. Consequently, estimating their macroeconomic effects requires identification of such signals. We propose a novel text analytic approach for transforming textual information into an economically meaningful time series. Using this method, we create a tax news measure from all publicly available postwar communications of US presidents. Our measure predicts the direction and size of future tax changes and contains signals not presen...
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作者：Lerch, Benjamin
作者单位：Universita della Svizzera Italiana
摘要：I investigate how the introduction of industrial robots is shaping the demographic composition of the US labor force between 1993 and 2014. I find that robots decreased employment of men and women by 3.7 and 1.6 percentage points, contributing to the secular decline in the gender employment gap, and that they decreased employment among Whites and non-Whites by 1.8 and 4.5 percentage points, widening the race/ethnicity employment gap. These effects follow from the persistent occupational segreg...
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作者：Olsson, Jonna
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：Women's increased involvement in the economy has been an important change in labor markets during the past century. I show that a macroeconomic model taking into account gender and household composition in an otherwise parsimonious off-the-shelf setting captures key historical labor supply facts regarding trend and volatility across subgroups. Evaluating the economy's response to aggregate shocks at different points in time shows that the underlying trend growth in married women's employment c...
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作者：Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Zaratiegui, Emilio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：We study the distribution of labor income during large devaluations. Across countries, inequality falls after large devaluations within the context of a surge in inflation and a fall and subsequent recovery of real labor income. To better understand inequality dynamics, we use a novel administrative dataset covering the 2002 Argentinean devaluation. We show that following a homogeneous fall in real labor income across workers, the bottom of the income distribution recovers faster than the top....
