Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs, and Firm Beliefs: Evidence from a Representative Survey

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad
• 署名单位: Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220318
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 36-73
• 关键词: inflation-expectations; political uncertainty; INVESTMENT; price; irreversibility; fluctuations; aggregate; search; IMPACT; POLICY

摘要

This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers'expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across types and sectors. They help explain firms' reactions to the shock, which provides evidence for the relevance of real options channels. We compare the findings to DSGE and VAR results. (JEL C83, D84, E22, E23, E24, G31, J23)