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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：In this paper, I show that the decline in consumption during unemployment depends on both liquid and illiquid wealth; that unemployment predicts illiquid asset withdrawal, primarily when households have few liquid assets; and that increased idiosyncratic unemployment risk leads to a rise in saving overall, but also to a decline in investment in illiquid assets. Motivated by these new findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two-asset, heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. The mod...
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作者：Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past 60 years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to 20 m...
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作者：Bernanke, Ben; Blanchard, Olivier
作者单位：Brookings Institution; Peterson Institute for International Economics
摘要：We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect ...
