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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：In this paper, I show that the decline in consumption during unemployment depends on both liquid and illiquid wealth; that unemployment predicts illiquid asset withdrawal, primarily when households have few liquid assets; and that increased idiosyncratic unemployment risk leads to a rise in saving overall, but also to a decline in investment in illiquid assets. Motivated by these new findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two-asset, heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. The mod...
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作者：Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past 60 years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to 20 m...
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作者：Bernanke, Ben; Blanchard, Olivier
作者单位：Brookings Institution; Peterson Institute for International Economics
摘要：We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect ...
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作者：Furlanetto, Francesco; Lepetit, Antoine; Robstad, Qrjan; Rubio-ramirez, Juan; Ulvedal, Pal
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Norges Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Emory University; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Nord University
摘要：In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular in samples starting in the 1980s. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-te...
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作者：Dunn, Abe; Gholizadeh, Mahsa
摘要：We estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States, providing a new consumption link that has not been studied previously. We highlight the importance of this link by estimating the effect of changes in local housing wealth on consumption and employment from 2001 to 2019. We generally find that the effect from changes in housing wealth crosses borders to affect consumption and employment in a pattern consistent with our spending flows. Ho...
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作者：Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to US Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices...
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作者：Nakajima, Makoto; Telyukova, Irina A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Many US households have significant wealth late in life, contrary to the predictions of a simple life-cycle model. By comparison, retirees in Sweden decumulate wealth more quickly while facing smaller out-of-pocket medical expense risks late in life. In this paper, we investigate how well the latter can account for the former using a full life-cycle consumption-saving model. We find that medical expense level and risk account for 32-59 percent of the US-Sweden difference in retirees' speed of ...
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作者：Gornemann, Nils; Quintana, Pablo A. Guerron; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：Boston College; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Two-thirds of the real exchange rate's (RER's) volatility occurs at low frequencies. We provide empirical evidence that links movements in the RER to changes in research and development spending and patents. A two-country real business cycle model with endogenous productivity and a gradual dissemination of ideas can rationalize these facts. Endogenous productivity alters RER dynamics by inducing (i) a persistent gap in productivity between countries and (ii) a reallocation of resources toward ...
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作者：Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：A model with two essential elements-sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies-explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk, and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal trade-offs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits and in...
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作者：Lieb, Lenard; Jassem, Adam; Almeida, Rui jorge; Bastuerk, Nalan; Smeekes, Stephan
作者单位：Maastricht University
摘要：Economic agents react to signals about future tax policy changes. Consequently, estimating their macroeconomic effects requires identification of such signals. We propose a novel text analytic approach for transforming textual information into an economically meaningful time series. Using this method, we create a tax news measure from all publicly available postwar communications of US presidents. Our measure predicts the direction and size of future tax changes and contains signals not presen...
