-
作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, Antonio; Sala, Luca; Soccorsi, Stefano
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; University of Turin; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Bocconi University; Lancaster University
摘要：We provide a few new empirical facts that theoretical models should feature in order to be consistent with the data. (i) There are two classes of shocks: demand and supply. Supply shocks have long-run effects on economic activity; demand shocks do not. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of business cycles' fluctuations. (iii) Supply shocks are the primary driver for consumption fluctuations, demand shocks for investment. (iv) The demand shock is closely related to the cre...
-
作者：Smith, Dominic a.; Ocampo, Sergio
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Increasing national concentration has contributed to market power concerns. Yet local trends are more informative about market power in retail, where consumers have traditionally shopped at nearby stores. Using novel product-level census data for all US retailers, we find that local and national concentration increased in parallel and affect most markets, products, and industries. The expansion of multimarket firms into new markets explains most of the increase in national concentration, with ...
-
作者：Li, Wenhao
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies the equilibrium effect of public liquidity on financial crises. Banks borrow from households via insured deposits and partially runnable debt and suffer endogenous funding withdrawals from households in crises. Holding public liquidity alleviates banks' liquidity problems. In equilibrium, a larger public liquidity supply reduces crisis severity and expands bank lending but crowds bank deposits and increases bank vulnerability to real shocks. The model quantitatively explains...
-
作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso
作者单位：York University - Canada
摘要：I study the effects of Ethiopia's 1997-2014 road expansion program on agricultural productivity and structural change by combining a quantitative spatial sectoral framework with novel district-level panel data on agricultural production and geocoded transport costs. In the model, the spatial heterogeneity of transport costs affects the distribution of production and mobile inputs across locations and sectors, and the allocation of land across crops within locations. Varying transport costs to ...
-
作者：Jo, YooN Joo; Zubairy, Sarah
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR), we show that government spending is more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation and, consequently, for real wages. Using US historical time series data, we provide evidence of larger spending multipliers in low-inflation recessi...
-
作者：Dunn, Abe; Gholizadeh, Mahsa
摘要：We estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States, providing a new consumption link that has not been studied previously. We highlight the importance of this link by estimating the effect of changes in local housing wealth on consumption and employment from 2001 to 2019. We generally find that the effect from changes in housing wealth crosses borders to affect consumption and employment in a pattern consistent with our spending flows. Ho...
-
作者：Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to US Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices...
-
作者：Mackowiak, Bartosz; Schmidt, Sebastian
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Fiscal backing is the idea that for the price level to be uniquely determined, fiscal policy must be active at least in some states of the world. We extend the fiscal theory of the price level to a heterogenous monetary union. Different combinations of national fiscal policies and a common fiscal policy with Eurobonds amount to active fiscal policy for the union. They all yield price-level determinacy but can have very different implications for the effects of fiscal and monetary policy. We pr...
-
作者：Fallick, Bruce; Haltiwanger, John; Mcentarfer, Erika; Staiger, Matthew
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; Harvard University
摘要：A large literature finds that workers displaced in mass layoffs experience persistent earnings losses. We find that the earnings penalty from job displacement is mediated by the length of the jobless spell after displacement. Workers who experience little or no joblessness suffer no losses on average; those who experience a prolonged period of joblessness experience large, persistent earnings losses. Job movers who experience joblessness tend to move to lower-paying firms, a phenomenon that in...
-
作者：Mackowiak, Bartosz; Wiederholt, Mirko
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Munich
摘要：We solve a real business cycle model with rational inattention (an RI-RBC model). In the RI-RBC model, the growth rates of employment, investment, and output are about as persistent as in the data, with an amount of inattention consistent with survey data on expectations. Moreover, consumption, employment, and output move in the same direction in response to news about future productivity. By contrast, the baseline RBC model produces neither persistent growth rates nor business cycle comovemen...
