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作者：Roldan, Francisco
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：I examine the role of households' precautionary savings motive in amplifying and propagating movements in sovereign spreads. I study this mechanism in a model where the government of a small open economy borrows from foreigners, but the debt is then partially held by heterogeneous domestic savers. In a calibration to Spain in the 2000s, I find that default risk accounts for about half of the output contraction. More generally, sovereign risk exacerbates volatility in consumption over time and ...
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作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We test the key implication of the buffer-stock model, namely that any revision in permanent income leads to a proportionate revision in target wealth. We use panel data on the amount of wealth that people think they must hold for precautionary purposes. Using the covariance restrictions that the model imposes on the joint behavior of income and target wealth, we find that households indeed revise, approximately one for one, their target wealth in response to permanent income shocks. The speed...
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作者：Di Pace, Federico; Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms-of-trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock. (JEL E23, E32, E43, F14, F44, O11)
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作者：Furlanetto, Francesco; Lepetit, Antoine; Robstad, Qrjan; Rubio-ramirez, Juan; Ulvedal, Pal
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Norges Bank; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Nord University
摘要：In this paper we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular in samples starting in the 1980s. Recessions driven by permanent demand shocks lead to a permanent decline in employment and investment, while output per worker is largely unaffected. We find strong evidence that hysteresis transmits through a rise in long-te...
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作者：Akyapi, Berkay; Bellon, Matthieu; Massetti, Emanuele
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while micro studies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We construct hundreds of variables from high-frequency, high-spatial-resolution weather measurements. Using the LASSO, we identify the parsimonious subset of variables that can best explain GDP and key macrofiscal variables. We find that scarcer mild temperatures and an increase in the occurrence of high temperatu...
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作者：Macaluso, Claudia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：Local skill remoteness captures the dissimilarity between the skill profiles of a worker's last job and other jobs in a local labor market. Higher skill remoteness at layoff is associated with persistently lower earnings after layoff, a higher probability of changing occupation, a lower probability of being reemployed at jobs with similar skill profiles, and a higher propensity to migrate. Jobs destroyed in recessions are also more skill remote than those lost in booms. The local skill remoten...
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作者：Cirelli, Fernando; Gertler, Mark
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：During the pandemic recession, firms directly exposed to the virus- i.e. the contact sector-contracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that won by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have affected this unequal downturn. Using both firm and industry data, we first construct disaggregated measures of revenue growth that distinguish between contact sector losers, contact sector winners, and the noncontact sector. We sh...
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作者：Evans, George W.; Gibbs, Christopher G.; Mcgough, Bruce
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews; University of Sydney
摘要：We propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoning in response to forecast errors, observed and counterfactual. The unified model makes sharp predictions for when and how quickly markets converge in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments, including novel predictions for individual and market behavio...
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作者：Toews, Gerhard; Vezina, Pierre-louis
作者单位：New Economic School; University of London; King's College London
摘要：The Soviet regime forcedly sent millions of enemies of the people, i.e. the educated elite considered a threat to the regime, to Gulag camps across the USSR. We use this large-scale episode of terror as a natural experiment to provide evidence on the long-run persistence of human capital across generations and its effect on economic growth. We combine archive data from the Gulag with the 2018 Russian firm census to show that areas around camps with a larger share of enemies among camp prisoner...
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作者：Nakajima, Makoto; Telyukova, Irina A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Many US households have significant wealth late in life, contrary to the predictions of a simple life-cycle model. By comparison, retirees in Sweden decumulate wealth more quickly while facing smaller out-of-pocket medical expense risks late in life. In this paper, we investigate how well the latter can account for the former using a full life-cycle consumption-saving model. We find that medical expense level and risk account for 32-59 percent of the US-Sweden difference in retirees' speed of ...
