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作者：Dew-Becker, Ian; Giglio, Stefano
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper presents a novel and unique measure of cross-sectional uncertainty constructed from stock options on individual firms. Cross-sectional uncertainty varied little between 1980 and 1995 and subsequently had three distinct peaks-during the tech boom, the financial crisis, and the coronavirus epidemic. Cross-sectional uncer-tainty has had a mixed relationship with overall economic activity, and aggregate uncertainty is much more powerful for forecasting aggregate growth. The data and mom...
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作者：Gelman, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kariv, Shachar; Koustas, Dmitri; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Silverman, Dan; Tadelis, Steven
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across con-sumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identifica-tion. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individu-als. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for...
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作者：Bonomo, Marco; Carvalho, Carlos; Garcia, Rene; Malta, Vivian; Rigato, Rodolfo
作者单位：Insper; Universite de Montreal; Harvard University
摘要：We propose a model that reconciles microeconomic evidence of fre-quent and large price changes with sizable monetary non-neutrality. Firms incur separate lump-sum costs to change prices and to gather and process some information about marginal costs. Additional rel-evant information is continuously available and can be factored into pricing decisions at no cost. We estimate the model by Simulated Method of Moments, using price-setting statistics for the US econ-omy. The model with free idiosyn...
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作者：Kucheryavyy, Konstantin; Lyn, Gary; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：University of Tokyo; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics); University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We propose a model to study the role of industry-level external econ-omies of scale in open economies. If the elasticity governing the strength of external economies is below the inverse of the trade elas-ticity in each industry, then specialization under frictionless trade is consistent with comparative advantage, the model is tractable even with trade frictions, and all countries gain from trade. External economies lower gains from trade except if the country specializes in industries with h...
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作者：Lanteri, Andrea; Medina, Pamela; Tan, Eugene
作者单位：Duke University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Toronto; University Toronto Scarborough; University of Toronto
摘要：What are the short-term effects of an import-competition shock on capital reallocation and aggregate productivity? To address this question, we develop a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and capital-reallocation frictions. We discipline the model with micro data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufac-turing firms and trade flows between China and Peru. Because of large frictions in firm downsizing and exit, an import-competition shock induces a temporary aggregate-productivity l...
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作者：Turen, Javier
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：This paper studies price-setting decisions under rational inatten-tion. Prices are set by tracking an unobserved target whose distri-bution is also unknown. Information acquisition is dynamic and fully flexible since, given information acquired previously, price setters choose the amount of information they collect as well as how they want to learn about both the outcome and its distribu-tion. We show that by allowing for imperfect information to be the unique source of rigidity, the model can...
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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the responsiveness of job destruction is countercyclical. This new find-ing can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead to lumpy employment adjustment. The model predicts that policies that aim to stimulate employment by encouraging job cre-ation, such as hiring subsidies, are significantly less effective in reces-sions: these are times when few firms are near their hiring thresholds and many firms...
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作者：Chen, Chaoran; Restuccia, Diego; Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul
作者单位：York University - Canada; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using detailed household-level data from Malawi on physical quan-tities of agricultural outputs and inputs, we measure farm total factor productivity (TFP), controlling for land quality, rain, and transitory shocks. We find that operated land size and capital are essentially unrelated to farm TFP, implying substantial factor misallocation. The agricultural output gain from a reallocation of factors to their efficient use among existing farmers is a factor between 1.7-and 2.8-fold. We provide s...
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作者：Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron; Tang, Yang; Wang, Ping
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Purdue University System; Purdue University; Nanyang Technological University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the...
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作者：Badinger, Harald; Schiman, Stefan
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business
摘要：This study measures the effects of monetary policy in the euro area using a small number of sign and magnitude restrictions on the residuals of a structural vector autoregression. We derive the dates and directions of these shocks from high-frequency financial market data around official European Central Bank policy announcements. Based on an in-depth narrative analysis and a comparison of the results with those of a standard high-frequency approach, we argue that our approach is purged from c...
