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作者：Altinoglu, Levent; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Columbia University
摘要：The concentration of risk within the financial system leads to systemic instability. We propose a theory to explain the structure of the financial system and show how it alters the risk-taking incentives of financial institutions when the government optimally intervenes during crises. By issuing interbank claims, risky institutions endogenously become large and interconnected. This concentrated structure enables insti-tutions to share the risk of systemic crises in a privately optimal way but ...
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作者：Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.; Hirano, Tomohiro; Jinnai, Ryo
作者单位：Boston College; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endog-enous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stim-ulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted US ...
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作者：Drechsel, Thomas
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore
摘要：Microeconomic evidence reveals a direct link between firms' current earnings and their access to debt. This paper studies macroeco-nomic implications of earnings-based borrowing constraints. In a macro model, firms with earnings-based constraints borrow more in response to positive investment shocks, whereas firms with collateral constraints borrow less. Empirically, aggregate and firm-level credit responds to identified investment shocks according to the predictions with earnings-based constr...
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作者：Barattieri, Alessandro; Cacciatore, Matteo
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we esti-mate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through ver-tical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has s...
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作者：Kim, Gwangmin; Binder, Carola
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Haverford College
摘要：When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibil-ity that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these learning-through-survey effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants gener-ally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat partici-pants may be more informed about or...
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作者：Maestas, Nicole; Mullen, Kathleen J.; Powell, David
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; RAND Corporation; Rand Health
摘要：Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employ-ment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in ...
