The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Pricest

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gelman, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kariv, Shachar; Koustas, Dmitri; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Silverman, Dan; Tadelis, Steven
• 署名单位: Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210024
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 129-160
• 关键词: oil; demand; consumption; macroeconomy; metaanalysis; elasticity; CHOICE; shocks; debt

摘要

This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across con-sumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identifica-tion. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individu-als. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for the elasticity of demand for gasoline and potential slow adjustment to changes in prices. The high MPC implies that changes in gasoline prices have large aggregate effects. (JEL D12, G51, L11, L71, L81, Q35)