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作者：Rozsypal, Filip; Schlafmann, Kathrin
作者单位：Danish Finance Institute; Copenhagen Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the impli-cations of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative mo...
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作者：Dew-Becker, Ian; Giglio, Stefano
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper presents a novel and unique measure of cross-sectional uncertainty constructed from stock options on individual firms. Cross-sectional uncertainty varied little between 1980 and 1995 and subsequently had three distinct peaks-during the tech boom, the financial crisis, and the coronavirus epidemic. Cross-sectional uncer-tainty has had a mixed relationship with overall economic activity, and aggregate uncertainty is much more powerful for forecasting aggregate growth. The data and mom...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Bank of Canada
摘要：We document considerable scope of heterogeneity within the unem-ployed, especially when they are divided along eligibility for and receipt of unemployment insurance (UI). We study the implica-tions of this heterogeneity on UI's insurance-incentive trade-off using a heterogeneous-agent job search model capable of match-ing the wealth and income differences that distinguish UI recip-ients from nonrecipients. Insurance benefits are larger for UI recipients who are predominantly wealth poor. Meanw...
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作者：Bouakez, Hafedh; Rachedi, Omar; Santoro, Emiliano
作者单位：University of Copenhagen
摘要：We study the effects of aggregate government spending shocks in a production network economy where sectors differ in their price rigidity, factor intensities, use of intermediate inputs, and contribution to final demand. The model implies an aggregate value-added multiplier that is 75 percent (and $0.32) larger than that obtained in the average one-sector economy. This amplification is mainly driven by input-output linkages and -to a lesser extent-sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity. Aggr...
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作者：Daruich, Diego; Kozlowski, Julian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：We compile a new database of grocery prices in Argentina. We find uniform pricing both within and across regions-i.e., prices almost do not vary within the stores of a chain. In line with uniform pricing, prices in stores of chains operating in one region react to changes in regional employment while prices in multiregion chains do not. Using a quantitative regional model with multiregion firms and uniform pricing, we find a one-half smaller elasticity of prices to a regional than an aggregate...
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作者：Gelman, Michael; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kariv, Shachar; Koustas, Dmitri; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Silverman, Dan; Tadelis, Steven
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：This paper estimates how overall consumer spending responds to changes in gasoline prices. It uses the differential impact across con-sumers of the sharp drop in gasoline prices in 2014 for identifica-tion. This estimation strategy is implemented using comprehensive, high-frequency, transaction-level data for a large panel of individu-als. The average estimated marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of unanticipated, permanent shocks to income is approximately one. This estimate accounts for...
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作者：Argente, David; Hsieh, Chang-tai; Lee, Munseob
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：We use a dataset with prices and spending on consumer packaged goods matched at the bar code level across the United States and Mexico to measure the price index in Mexico relative to the United States. Mexican prices relative to the United States are 23 percent lower compared to the International Comparisons Project's (ICP) price index. We decompose the 23 percent gap into the biases from imputation, sampling, quality, and variety. Quality bias increases Mexican prices by 48 percent. Imputati...
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作者：Cheung, T. Terry
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：Demography and structural transformation are interrelated, and depend critically on education. At the turn of the twentieth century, US parents began having fewer children while increasing educa-tional investment per child. This quantity-quality tradeoff facilitated job reallocation from the low-skilled agricultural sector to the high-skilled nonagricultural sector. This transformation is examined in a heterogeneous agent model with a nondegenerate human capital distribution, focusing on how f...
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作者：Paluszynski, Radoslaw; Yu, Pei Cheng
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We study optimal tax policies with human capital investment and retirement savings for present-biased agents. Agents are heterogeneous in their innate ability and make risky education investments, which determines their labor productivity. We demonstrate that the optimal distortions vary with education status. In particular, the optimal policy encourages human capital investment with savings incentives. Our implementation uses income-contingent student loans and existing retirement policies, a...
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作者：Bonomo, Marco; Carvalho, Carlos; Garcia, Rene; Malta, Vivian; Rigato, Rodolfo
作者单位：Insper; Universite de Montreal; Harvard University
摘要：We propose a model that reconciles microeconomic evidence of fre-quent and large price changes with sizable monetary non-neutrality. Firms incur separate lump-sum costs to change prices and to gather and process some information about marginal costs. Additional rel-evant information is continuously available and can be factored into pricing decisions at no cost. We estimate the model by Simulated Method of Moments, using price-setting statistics for the US econ-omy. The model with free idiosyn...
