Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron; Tang, Yang; Wang, Ping
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Purdue University System; Purdue University; Nanyang Technological University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160142
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 413-440
• 关键词: growth; price; MODEL; WEALTH; LAND; RISK

摘要

This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the endogenous price response. Land supply expansion ameliorates this negative feedback. Overall, housing markets powerfully shape the path of economic development.