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作者：Carvalho, Carlos; Eusepi, Stefano; Moench, Emanuel; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Deutsche Bundesbank; Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Melbourne
摘要：We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expec-tations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and infla-tion expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and mone-tary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explana-tions of low-frequency properties o...
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作者：Hendricks, Lutz; Schoellman, Todz
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：This paper revisits the question of how allowing for imper-fect substitution among workers with different skill levels affects the results of development accounting. We consider a range of models that nest the approaches in the literature and calibrate them to a common set of moments, including particularly evidence on the wage gains of migrants. We obtain two main results. First, human capital accounts for between one-half and three-fourths of cross-country income gaps. Second, human capital ...
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作者：Barattieri, Alessandro; Cacciatore, Matteo
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we esti-mate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through ver-tical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has s...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Feenstra, Robert C.; Inklaar, Robert
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Groningen
摘要：We use the structure of the Melitz (2003) model to compute the cost of living and welfare across 47 countries, and compare these to conventional measures of prices and real consumption from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). The cost of living is inferred without directly using ICP prices of traded goods and instead relying on output prices, openness, domestic trade costs, and product variety measured by the counts of barcodes or firms. We find that welfare relative to the United Sta...
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作者：Xing, Jianwei; Zou, Eric Yongchen; Yin, Zhentao; Wang, Yong; Li, Zhenhua
作者单位：Peking University; Peking University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
摘要：We study a new consumption stimulus program implemented by a large Chinese city that leverages mobile payment platforms to dis-pense massive amounts of small-value digital coupons. Exploiting a rush design of the dispensing process in which over 1 million pro-gram participants compete for coupons on a first-come, first-served basis through a digital portal, we estimate that winning coupons increases weekly out-of-pocket spending by US$3 for every US$1 in government subsidy. Coupon-winning cons...
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作者：Dolfen, Paul; Einav, Liran; Klenow, Peter J.; Klopack, Benjamin; Levin, Jonathan D.; Levin, Larry; Best, Wayne
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Stanford University
摘要：E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spend-ing in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-commerce reached 8 percent of consumption by 2017, yielding the equivalent of a 1 per-cent boost to their consumption, or over $1,000 per household per year. While some of the gains arose from avoiding travel costs to local merchants, most of the gains st...
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作者：Fukui, Masao; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：Boston University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slow-down comes entirely from female employment, as women's employ-ment rates converged toward men's during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women crowd out men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a gen-eral equilibrium model with home production...
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作者：Fernandes, Ana M.; Klenow, Peter J.; Meleshchuk, Sergii; Pierola, Martha Denisse; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; Inter-American Development Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In benchmark trade models that feature a constant trade elastic-ity, bilateral exports vary entirely on the intensive margin (exports per firm) or entirely on the extensive margin (number of firms). Our empirical analysis documents that roughly one-half of this variation occurs along each margin, implying that the trade elasticity is not constant. We estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint log-normal distribution for firm productivity, fixed costs, and demand shifters. Using exact-hat...
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作者：Neiman, Brent; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Over the last 15 years, individual households have concentrated their spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by superstar products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly purchase different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has decreased. We develop a model of heterogeneous household demand and use it to conclude that increasing product variety drives these divergent trends. When more products are availab...
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作者：Kim, Gwangmin; Binder, Carola
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Haverford College
摘要：When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibil-ity that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these learning-through-survey effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants gener-ally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat partici-pants may be more informed about or...
