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作者：Bilk, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Vanderbilt University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three-quar-ters of this increase reflects the adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time postpandemic compared to prepandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays w...
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作者：Coulibaly, Louphou
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a parsimonious theory explaining the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging countries in a model where access to foreign financing depends on the real exchange rate and the govern-ment lacks commitment. The discretionary monetary policy is pro-cyclical to mitigate balance sheet effects originating from exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. Committing to an inflation targeting regime is found to increase social welfare and reduce the frequency of financial cri...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Weber, Henning
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a prod-uct life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Romer, Paul; Islam, Asif M.; Samaniego, Roberto
作者单位：George Washington University; The World Bank
摘要：We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumulate twice as much human capital at work as those in developing countries; (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience and education to human capital accumulation and economic development might be equ...
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作者：Moschini, Emily G.
作者单位：William & Mary
摘要：I examine the role of family structure and childcare subsidies in child skill accumulation. I establish empirically that skill accumulation is more responsive to childcare price for one-parent families than for two-parent families. I analyze the effects of childcare subsidies in a model featuring endogenous family formation, parental altruism, and a baseline subsidy resembling that of the United States. I find that eliminating this subsidy generates welfare losses of 1.63 percent of lifetime c...
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作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Chen, Huigang; Otrok, Christopher; Rebucci, Alessandro; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Facebook Inc; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Johns Hopkins University; University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：There is a new and now large literature analyzing government poli-cies for financial stability based on models with endogenous borrow-ing constraints. These normative analyses build upon the concept of constrained efficient allocation where the social planner is con-strained by the same borrowing limit that agents face. In this paper, we show that there exists at least one set of tools implementing the constrained efficient allocation that can also be used by a Ramsey planner to replicate an u...
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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the responsiveness of job destruction is countercyclical. This new find-ing can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead to lumpy employment adjustment. The model predicts that policies that aim to stimulate employment by encouraging job cre-ation, such as hiring subsidies, are significantly less effective in reces-sions: these are times when few firms are near their hiring thresholds and many firms...
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作者：Paluszynski, Radoslaw
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：The European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradual...
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作者：Chen, Chaoran; Restuccia, Diego; Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul
作者单位：York University - Canada; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using detailed household-level data from Malawi on physical quan-tities of agricultural outputs and inputs, we measure farm total factor productivity (TFP), controlling for land quality, rain, and transitory shocks. We find that operated land size and capital are essentially unrelated to farm TFP, implying substantial factor misallocation. The agricultural output gain from a reallocation of factors to their efficient use among existing farmers is a factor between 1.7-and 2.8-fold. We provide s...
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作者：Garriga, Carlos; Hedlund, Aaron; Tang, Yang; Wang, Ping
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Purdue University System; Purdue University; Nanyang Technological University; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper investigates the interrelationship between urbanization, structural transformation, and the post-2000 Chinese housing boom through the lens of a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that features migration and a rich housing market structure with mortgages. Urbanization and structural transformation emerge as key drivers of China's house price boom, while at the same time rising house prices impede these forces of economic transition. Policies to boost urbanization can be undone by the...
