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作者：Hoesch, Lukas; Rossi, Barbara; Sekhposyan, Tatevik
作者单位：Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：Does the Federal Reserve have an information advantage in fore-casting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future state of the economy that the Federal Reserve communicates in its announce-ments via an information channel? This paper investigates the evolution of both the information advantage and the information channel over time. Although they appear to be...
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作者：Badinger, Harald; Schiman, Stefan
作者单位：Vienna University of Economics & Business
摘要：This study measures the effects of monetary policy in the euro area using a small number of sign and magnitude restrictions on the residuals of a structural vector autoregression. We derive the dates and directions of these shocks from high-frequency financial market data around official European Central Bank policy announcements. Based on an in-depth narrative analysis and a comparison of the results with those of a standard high-frequency approach, we argue that our approach is purged from c...
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作者：Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Stock, James H.
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon tax-ation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a neg-ative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduc-tion on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since Europea...
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作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Pennsylvania; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that addit...
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作者：Altinoglu, Levent; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Columbia University
摘要：The concentration of risk within the financial system leads to systemic instability. We propose a theory to explain the structure of the financial system and show how it alters the risk-taking incentives of financial institutions when the government optimally intervenes during crises. By issuing interbank claims, risky institutions endogenously become large and interconnected. This concentrated structure enables insti-tutions to share the risk of systemic crises in a privately optimal way but ...
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作者：Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.; Hirano, Tomohiro; Jinnai, Ryo
作者单位：Boston College; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endog-enous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stim-ulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted US ...
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作者：Chahrour, Ryan; Ulbricht, Robert
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete informa-tion that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information econ-omy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information struc-ture. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an other-wise frictionless model. Our approach ...
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作者：Camehl, Annika; Rieth, Malte
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel struc-tural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, iden-tified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and per-sistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent o...
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作者：Rudanko, Leena
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：This paper studies wage setting in a directed search model of multiworker firms facing within-firm equity constraints on wages. The constraints reduce wages, as firms exploit their monopsony power over their existing workers, rendering wages less responsive to productivity in doing so. They also give rise to a time inconsistency in the dynamic firm problem, as firms face a less elastic labor supply in the short run than in the long run, making commitment to future wages valuable. Constrained f...
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作者：Drechsel, Thomas
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore
摘要：Microeconomic evidence reveals a direct link between firms' current earnings and their access to debt. This paper studies macroeco-nomic implications of earnings-based borrowing constraints. In a macro model, firms with earnings-based constraints borrow more in response to positive investment shocks, whereas firms with collateral constraints borrow less. Empirically, aggregate and firm-level credit responds to identified investment shocks according to the predictions with earnings-based constr...
