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作者：Cao, Dan; Luo, Wenlan; Nie, Guangyu
作者单位：Georgetown University; Tsinghua University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We study the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the severity of financial crises using an incomplete markets New Keynesian model with two occasionally binding constraints: a ZLB on the nominal interest rate and a borrowing constraint tied to an asset price. The model's financial wedge corresponds to an endogenous multiplier on the borrowing constraint. Binding ZLB exacerbates financial crises through its interaction with the asset fire sale vicious cycle, driving up the financial wedge. ...
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作者：Kucheryavyy, Konstantin; Lyn, Gary; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：University of Tokyo; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics); University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We propose a model to study the role of industry-level external econ-omies of scale in open economies. If the elasticity governing the strength of external economies is below the inverse of the trade elas-ticity in each industry, then specialization under frictionless trade is consistent with comparative advantage, the model is tractable even with trade frictions, and all countries gain from trade. External economies lower gains from trade except if the country specializes in industries with h...
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作者：Lanteri, Andrea; Medina, Pamela; Tan, Eugene
作者单位：Duke University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Toronto; University Toronto Scarborough; University of Toronto
摘要：What are the short-term effects of an import-competition shock on capital reallocation and aggregate productivity? To address this question, we develop a quantitative model with heterogeneous firms and capital-reallocation frictions. We discipline the model with micro data on investment dynamics of Peruvian manufac-turing firms and trade flows between China and Peru. Because of large frictions in firm downsizing and exit, an import-competition shock induces a temporary aggregate-productivity l...
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作者：Lambertini, Luisa; Proebsting, Christian
摘要：The hoped-for silver lining of euro-area austerity programs was to raise external competitiveness and improve current accounts. Using product-and industry-level data for 12 countries over the period 1999-2018, we show that reductions in government spending reduce prices and wages but only for products with low import content and industries with low export shares. This leads to asymmetric expen-diture switching, with net exports improving through lower imports rather than higher exports. The st...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Van Rooij, Maarten
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
摘要：We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exog-enously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optim...
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作者：Turen, Javier
作者单位：Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：This paper studies price-setting decisions under rational inatten-tion. Prices are set by tracking an unobserved target whose distri-bution is also unknown. Information acquisition is dynamic and fully flexible since, given information acquired previously, price setters choose the amount of information they collect as well as how they want to learn about both the outcome and its distribu-tion. We show that by allowing for imperfect information to be the unique source of rigidity, the model can...
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作者：Fried, Stephie; Lagakos, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Boston University
摘要：Many policymakers view power outages as a major constraint on firm productivity in developing countries. Yet empirical studies find modest short-run effects of outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general-equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. Outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, depressing the scale of incumbent firms and reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical litera...
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作者：Erceg, Christopher; Prestipino, Andrea; Raffo, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Fiscal devaluations-an increase in import tariffs and export sub-sidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsi-dies (VP)- have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany's underperformance in response t...
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作者：Asturias, Jose; Hur, Sewon; Kehoe, Timothy J.; Ruhl, Kim J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Wisconsin System; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP growth. To analyze this relationship, we develop a model of firm entry and exit based on Hopenhayn (1992). When we introduce reforms that reduce entry costs or reduce barriers to technology adoption into a calibrated model, we find that the ent...
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作者：Graham, James; Makridis, Christos A.
作者单位：University of Sydney; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Stanford University
摘要：We introduce a novel Bartik-like instrument for house prices con-sisting of the local composition of housing characteristics interacted with aggregate changes in the marginal prices of these character-istics. Using household-level panel data, we estimate elasticities of nondurable consumption expenditures with respect to house prices of around 0.1. These consumption effects are concentrated among the young and those most likely to be facing tight borrowing constraints. A decomposition shows th...
