Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barattieri, Alessandro; Cacciatore, Matteo
• 署名单位: University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190445
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 97-128
• 关键词: fractional response variables; intermediate inputs; IMPACT; cycle

摘要

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we esti-mate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through ver-tical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are neg-ative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns. (JEL E24, F13, F14, F16, G14, L14)