Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop-Prone Economies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coulibaly, Louphou
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200201
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 141-176
• 关键词: Financial crises; capital controls; credit; rules; neutrality; prices; fear

摘要

This paper proposes a parsimonious theory explaining the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging countries in a model where access to foreign financing depends on the real exchange rate and the govern-ment lacks commitment. The discretionary monetary policy is pro-cyclical to mitigate balance sheet effects originating from exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. Committing to an inflation targeting regime is found to increase social welfare and reduce the frequency of financial crises despite increasing their severity. Finally, the ability to use capital controls induces a less procyclical discre-tionary monetary policy and delivers higher welfare gains than an inflation targeting regime. (JEL E31, E32, E44, E52, F31, F33, F38)