How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trials

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Van Rooij, Maarten
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200445
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 109-152
• 关键词: expectations; instruments; guidance; rates; price; MODEL

摘要

We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exog-enously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. The causal effects of reduced inflation expectations on nondurable spending are imprecisely estimated, but there is a sharp positive effect on durable spending. This is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more optimistic about their real income and aggregate spending when they decrease their inflation expectations. We find little role for cognitive or financial constraints in explaining spending responses. (JEL C83, D12, D83, D84, E21, E31)