Trade Policies and Fiscal Devaluations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Erceg, Christopher; Prestipino, Andrea; Raffo, Andrea
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210163
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 104-140
• 关键词: monetary-policy; symmetry; wage; EMPLOYMENT; TARIFFS

摘要

Fiscal devaluations-an increase in import tariffs and export sub-sidies (IX) or an increase in value-added taxes and payroll subsi-dies (VP)- have been shown to provide as much stimulus under fixed exchange rates as a currency devaluation. We find that if agents expect policies to be reversed and the tax pass-through is large, VP is contractionary and IX provides a modest boost. In our medium-scale DSGE model, both features are crucial in accounting for Germany's underperformance in response to VP in 2007. These findings cast doubt on fiscal devaluations as a cyclical stabilization tool when monetary policy is constrained. (JEL E32, E52, E62, F13, F33, H20)